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- United Arab Emirates Oil and Gas Industry Update Quarter 1 2012
United Arab Emirates Oil and Gas Industry Update Quarter 1 2012
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BMI View: The UAE continues to take advantage of reduced Iranian volumes to sustain relatively high
crude output of around 2.7mn b/d. Including condensates and NGLs, we estimate oil production in 2012
averaged 3.0mn b/d. On the back of efforts to increase recovery rates, we expect UAE production to rise to
3.2mn b/d by 2016. Gas production will also increase as more associated gas is captured and new projects
such as the Shah field drive output to 68bcm by the end of our forecast period.
We highlight the following trends and developments in the UAE's oil and gas sector:
With around 1mn barrels per day (b/d) of Iranian crude removed from the oil market due to sanctions, the
UAE is one of the countries taking up the slack - taking advantage of investment in production capacity.
Output in mid-2012 averaged around 2.7mn b/d according the latest Independent Energy Agency (IEA)
and Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.
Gas production will continue to grow, with projects such as the Umm Shaif-Habshan project and the
Shah development boosting gas output to 67.6bn cubic metres (bcm) by 2016 and 7bcm by 2021.
Despite growing gas volumes, the use of gas in enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects and extensive
processing requirements due to poor quality reserves mean marketable gas volumes are often nearly 40
%smaller than the gross volumes actually produced.
A further 200,000b/d of output was expected by Q412, pushing total production capacity above 3mn b/d.
Abu Dhabi is planning to spend US$60bn over the next five years to raise production capacity above
3.5mn b/d. The increase in production capacity has helped support an increase in 2012 oil production;
UAE crude output in August 2012 was estimated at 2.7mn b/d.
The liberalisation of fuel prices is unlikely in the short term, owing to the government largesse following
political unrest across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in 2011. Fuels distribution in the
UAE will therefore remain a loss-making proposition.
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