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Venezuela Retail Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 60 pages

BMI View: We continue to have a gloomy outlook for the Venezuelan retail sector over the medium term. The country's economic troubles, including a low oil price, high inflation and weak exchange rate, as well as the government's highly interventionist stance, will continue to dampen consumer and investor confidence in the country. We forecast that total household spending will reach VEF7,342.1bn in 2016, equivalent to USD1978.7bn. By 2019 these figures should be VEF21,576,2bn and USD333.8bn. High inflation is driving the rapid growth in bolívar terms, but is rapidly eroding real wages and curbing consumer confidence. The government's attempts to control prices of basic goods, meanwhile, have led to shortages that have increased the role of the black market in the economy and kept the proportion of spending that goes on essential goods high.

Table Of Contents

Venezuela Retail Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Industry Forecast 13
Headline Retail Forecast 13
Table: Total Household Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019) 14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Venezuela 2012-2019) 15
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of GDP (Venezuela 2012-2019) 16
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019) 17
Retail Sector Forecast 20
Food And Drink 21
Table: Food, Drink And Tobacco Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019) 21
Clothing And Footwear 22
Table: Clothing And Footwear Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019) 23
Household Goods 23
Table: Household Goods Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019) 24
Personal Care 24
Table: Personal Care Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019) 25
Household Income And Numbers Forecast 26
Table: Household Income Data (Venezuela 2012-2019) 26
Table: Labour Market Data (Venezuela 2012-2019) 28
Demographic Forecast 30
Table: Total Population (Venezuela 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Babies (Venezuela 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Children (Venezuela 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Young Teens And Older Children (Venezuela 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Young People (Venezuela 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Venezuela 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Venezuela 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Young Adults (Venezuela 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Venezuela 2012-2019) 34
Table: Population: Urban (Venezuela 2012-2019) 34
Macroeconomic Forecasts 35
Economic Analysis 35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 39
Latin America Risk/Reward Index 39
Table: Latin America Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116 39
Venezuela - Risk/Reward Index 40
Rewards 40
Risks 40
Market Overview 42
Competitive Landscape 44
Malls And Department Stores 44
Mass Grocery Retail 45
Fashion 45
Pharmacies 46
Glossary 47
Methodology 54
Industry Forecast Methodology 54
Sources 57
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 57
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 58
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 60

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