1. Market Research
  2. > Energy & Environment
  3. > Energy
  4. > Oil and Gas Energy Market Trends
  5. > Bahrain Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

Bahrain Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

  • November 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 43 pages

Core Views

In light of record oil revenues and the weakness of private investment, we expect public spending to outperform over the coming quarters, which should support activity in the non-hydrocarbon economy. Efforts to address the shortage of affordable housing will see government CAPEX accelerate. We do not believe that weaker oil prices will derail the Bahraini government’s investment plans, ensuring a continued source of support for the country’s economy. Real GDP growth will reach 3.8% in 2015 and 2016, compared to an annual average of 3.6% between 2009 and 2013.
Bahrain’s reputation as a stable and welcoming location to do business in the Gulf has suffered as a result of the volatile political climate. At the moment, it remains to be seen if Manama will be able to compete with Doha and Dubai in attracting investment into the all-important hospitality and financial services industry.
The economy’s medium-term outlook remains contingent upon a lasting solution being found to the current political crisis. Unfortunately, we maintain our relatively guarded outlook on the prospects that the government and opposition can come to some form of agreement in the near term.
Bahrain’s weak medium-term fiscal prospects will force the government to make difficult choices. We believe that Manama will have little option but to introduce new taxes over the coming years, while the issue of spending consolidation will loom large on the agenda. Support from Saudi Arabia could delay these pressures, but would
entail a significant loss of sovereignty.

Table Of Contents

Bahrain Business Forecast Report Q1 2015
Executive Summary 5
Core Views 5
Key Risks To Outlook 5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Index 7
Domestic Politics 8
More Deadlock Ahead After Election Boycott 8
Bahrain's political stalemate is set to persist after parliamentary elections scheduled for November 22, which the opposition has pledged
to boycott. We expect the Khalifa regime to remain in power, yet the deadlock and the regime's limited support base will constrain the
prospects for political and economic reform.
Long-Term Political Outlook 10
Sun, Sea, And Sectarianism: Prospects For Future Stability Assessed 10
Bahrain's political future is complicated by growing tensions between the Sunni elite and the Shi'a majority, labour and population
imbalances, the need to stay on side with both Iran and Saudi Arabia, and economic vulnerability. We believe the most likely long-term
scenario is for democratisation to be brought about by political and economic necessity, although there is no guarantee that this would
be peaceful.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Index 13
Economic Activity 14
Public Investment To Hold, Supporting Growth 14
We do not believe that weaker oil prices will derail the Bahraini government's investment plans, ensuring a continued source of support
for the country's economy. Real GDP growth will reach 3.8% in 2015 and 2016, compared to an annual average of 3.6% between 2009
and 2013.
Table: Economic Activity 14
Investment Climate 17
Woes Not Over For Bahrain's Stock Market 17
Bahrain's stock market will remain stagnant over the coming years, as local companies shun the exchange in favour of more liquid
regional counterparts. The introduction of Islamic finance products could allow Bahrain to gain a first-mover advantage in a niche
market, but will prove insufficient to revers e the broader trend of decline.
Banking Sector 18
Banking Sector: Geographic Diversification Crucial 18
We expect profitability and asset quality at the largest Bahraini conventional banks to hold up well over the coming quarters, and project
asset growth to accelerate over 2015. That said, we caution that the operating environment in Bahrain will remain subject to downside
risks, both on the political and economic fronts. Geographically diversified banks will outperform lenders predominantly focused on the
Bahraini market.
Table: Banks' Net Profit (USD) 18
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 21
The Bahrain Economy To 2023 21
Political Crisis Raises Risks 21
Assuming oil prices do not collapse and political stability is eventually restored, Bahrain's economy will be able to post relatively
moderate levels of real GDP growth over the coming decade. That said, the ongoing political crisis has raised a host of questions
surrounding Bahrain's long-term outlook, with concerns growing that the country's financial services and tourism sectors will suffer
table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts 21
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 23
Operational Risk Index 23
Operational Risk 24
Table: Bahrain Operational Risk 24
Transport Network 25
table: MENA Transport Network Risks 26
Economic Openness 29
Table: MENA Economic Openness Risk 29
Table: Bahrain Imports By Product 30
Chapter 5: Key Sectors 33
Oil and Gas 33
Table: Oil Production 34
table: Oil Production 34
table: Gas Production 35
table: Gas Production 35
Retail 36
table: Headline Retail Sector Spending 39
Other Key Sectors 41
Table: Pharma Sector Key Indicators 41
Table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators 41
Table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators 41
Table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators 42
Table: Autos Sector Key Indicators 42
table: Freight Key Indicators 42
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions 43
Global Outlook 43
Reality Check: Uncertainty Reigns 43
Table: Global Assumptions 43
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, % 44
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, % 45

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Amrita

+1 718 303 2019

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Biorefinery Technologies: Global Markets

Biorefinery Technologies: Global Markets

  • $ 6 650
  • Industry report
  • July 2016
  • by BCC Research

This BCC Research report provides a critical evaluation of the current status of commercial biorefinery markets and the ways in which recent environmental legislation and breakthroughs in technology will ...

Oilfield Process Chemicals: Global Markets

Oilfield Process Chemicals: Global Markets

  • $ 6 650
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by BCC Research

Use this report to: - Analyze the chemicals involved in oil and gas exploration and production at the chemical manufacturing sales level - Discuss and classify the market on the basis of chemical application, ...

Industrial Plugs & Sockets Market by Protection, Type, End-User - Global Forecast to 2021

Industrial Plugs & Sockets Market by Protection, Type, End-User - Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 6 328
  • Industry report
  • October 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

“The industrial plugs & sockets market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.82% from 2016 to 2021” The industrial plugs & sockets market is projected to reach USD 3.60 billion by 2021, growing at a ...


Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.