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Tanzania Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

  • December 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 45 pages

Core Views

Tanzania's economy will see real growth of 6.9% in 2015 and 7.3% in 2016. Our 2015 forecast has been revised down in the wake of the power scandal troubling the country's government, which has led to funds being withheld by international donors. Rising uncertainty over future energy policy in Tanzania runs the risk of pushing back crucial investment into the offshore gas sector. Although we believe that CCM will win the October 2015 elections, a united opposition will lead to increasing resource nationalism in campaigning.
Monetary policy in Tanzania, executed primarily through open market operations and sales of foreign exchange, will continue to be relatively tight in 2015 as the Bank of Tanzania looks to bring in inflation. It will be aided in this aim by falling global oil prices.

Major Forecast Changes

Real GDP growth in 2015 has been revised down from 7.3% to 6.9%.

Table Of Contents

Tanzania Business Forecast Report Q1 2015
Executive Summary 5
Core Views 5
Major Forecast Changes 5
Key Risks To Outlook 5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Index 7
Domestic Politics 8
Resource Nationalism Will Rise As Elections Near 8
Rising uncertainty over future energy policy in Tanzania runs the risk of pushing back crucial investment into the offshore gas sector.
Although we believe that CCM will win the October 2015 elections, a united opposition will lead to increasing resource nationalism in
campaigning.
Table: POLITICAL OVERVIEW 8
Long-Term Political Outlook 10
Corruption And Reliance On Foreign Money High On The Agenda 10
Tanzania will continue to enjoy broad political stability over the coming decade, with little to suggest that the ruling Chama Cha
Mapinduzi party's authority will be threatened. That is not to say the 201 5-202 3 period will be without challenges. Chief among these
will be dealing with high levels of corruption and addressing the country's dependence on foreign aid.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Index 13
Economic Activity 14
Withheld Donor Funds Will Impinge On 2015 Growth 14
Tanzania's economy will see real growth of 6.9% in 2015 and 7.3% in 2016. Our 2015 forecast has been revised down in the wake of
the power scandal troubling the country's government, which has led to funds being withheld by international donors.
table : Eco nomic Acti vit y 14
Exchange Rate Policy 15
TZS: Looking Technically And Fundamentally Weak 15
The Tanzanian shilling is looking weak as withheld funding from international donors has prompted a break through major technical
support. Even if the funds are released, we forecast ongoing depreciation against the US dollar.
TABLE: CURENCY FORECAST 15
Monetary Policy 17
5.0% Target In Sight In 2015 17
Monetary policy in Tanzania, executed primarily through open market operations and sales of foreign exchange, will continue to be
relatively tight in 2015 as the Bank of Tanzania looks to bring in inflation. It will be aided in this aim by falling global oil prices.
table : Monetar y Polic y 17
Fiscal Policy 19
Delays To Budget Support Threaten Economic Growth 19
The withholding of general budget support aid by international donors increases risk to economic growth in Tanzania, as it is public
investment that will suffer.
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 21
The Tanzanian Economy To 2023 21
Robust Growth Forecast On Gas Investment 21
We are forecasting a period of robust growth in the Tanzanian economy in the years ahead, as the country looks set to benefit from its
nascent offshore gas sector, and the investment being pumped in to the country to develop this.
table : Long-Term Macroeco nomic Forecasts 21
Business Monitor International Ltd www.businessmonitor.com 3
Contents
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 25
Operational Risk Index 25
Operational Risk 26
TABLE: Operational Risk 26
Transport Network 27
TABLE: SSA Transport Network Risks 28
Economic Openness 31
table : Sub -Sahara n Africa - Eco nomic Ope nnes 32
Table : Top 5 Product Exported (USDmn) 33
table : Top 5 Trade Part ners Product Imports (USDmn) 34
Chapter 5: Key Sectors 37
Infrastructure 37
table: Infrastructure and Construction Industry Data 38
table: Infrastructure and Construction Industry Data 38
Other Key Sectors 41
Table: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators 41
table : Pharma Sector Key Indicators 41
table : Telecoms Sector Key Indicators 42
table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators 42
table: Autos Sector Key Indicators 42
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions 43
Global Outlook 43
Warning Signs Growing 43
Table : Global Assumptio ns 43
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, % 44
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 44
Table : Emergi ng Markets , Real GDP Growt h, % 45

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