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China Mining Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 108 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


BMI View:

China's mining sector will see positive growth from 2018 onwards due to improving commodity prices. Government-led consolidation will rumble on, however, with depleting reserves, falling ore grades and the relatively short life span of domestic mines further driving outward Chinese investment.

Latest Updates & Structural Trends


- While cooling Chinese economic growth will adversely impact mining operations, we expect the impact to vary across different mineral segments. Tin will do best while copper and iron ore will perform worst.

- China's structural shortfall in domestic production combined with the government's desire for resource security will continue to spur overseas mining deals. Although China's reliance on imports will increase due to the country's depleting reserves, falling ore grades and the relatively short life span of mines, outbound investment will face more caution, as Chinese projects are increasingly faced with rising costs and project delays. As a result, Chinese firms' 2015 mining merger and acquisition activity (M&A) in Latin America slowed to USD2.1bn, a 72.8% y-o-y decrease from 2014. Chinese mining M&A activity in the Middle East and Africa also fell significantly, by 46.0% y-o-y, to USD135mn in 2015. Chinese metal investment in Sub Saharan Africa also dropped in 2015 to USD1.2bn, significantly lower than USD4.0bn in 2014 and USD8.4bn in 2013.

Table Of Contents

China Mining Report Q1 2017
BMI Industry View 7
Table: China Mining Industry Value 7
Latest Updates and Structural Trends 7
Table: China - Mineral Round Up 8
SWOT 10
SWOT 10
Industry Forecast 12
China - 13th Five-Year Plan Signals Further Mining Consolidation 12
Coal: Consolidation Efforts To Halt 17
Latest Developments 17
Table: Coal Production Forecasts (China 2012-2020) 17
Table: China - Coal Mining Projects 18
Structural Trends 20
Bauxite: Slow Production Growth Ahead 29
Latest Developments 29
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (China 2012-2020) 29
Structural Trends 29
Imports: Growth In Short Term And Long Term 30
Risks To Production Outlook 31
Copper: Production Growth To Slow 32
Latest Developments 32
Table: Copper Production Forecast (China 2012-2020) 32
Table: China - Select Copper Projects 32
Structural Trends 35
Gold: Depleting Reserves To Slow Growth 38
Table: Gold Production Forecast (China 2012-2020) 38
Iron Ore: Increasing Imports Ahead 44
Latest Developments 44
Table: China Iron Ore Production Forecast 44
Table: China Iron Ore Projects 45
Structural Trends 46
Price Weakness To Hurt Miners 46
Small-Scale Miners To Come Under The Most Pressure 47
Seaborne Import Reliance To Increase 48
Nickel: Growth To Falter Amid Environmental Concerns 50
Latest Developments 50
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (China 2012-2020) 50
Table: China - Select Nickel Projects 51
Structural Trends 51
Risks To Outlook 54
Tin: Yunnan To Drive Growth 55
Latest Developments 55
Table: Tin Production Forecast (China 2012-2020) 55
Table: China Selected Tin Projects 55
Structural Trends 56
Risks To Outlook 57
Lead: Environmental Concerns To Drag Growth 58
Latest Developments 58
Table: Lead Production Forecast (China 2012-2020) 58
Table: China - Select Lead Mining Projects 58
Structural Trends 59
Risks To Outlook 60
Zinc: Growth To Stagnate 61
Latest Developments 61
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (China 2012-2020) 61
Table: China - Select Zinc Projects 61
Structural Trends 62
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 66
Risk/Reward Index 66
Rewards 66
Industry Rewards 66
Country Rewards 66
Risks 66
Industry Risks 66
Country Risks 67
Asia Risk/Reward Index 67
Key Takeaways 67
Latest Revisions 68
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index 69
Regulatory Development 70
Trade And Investment Risk Analysis 70
Commodities Forecast 74
Commodities Forecasts 74
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 74
Competitive Landscape 76
Majors Firms 77
Table: China - Key Financial Data For Select Listed Mining Companies 77
Company Profile 79
Jiangxi Copper 79
Table: Jiangxi Copper - Key Financial Data 82
Shandong Gold 83
Table: Shandong Gold - Key Financial Data 85
Global Company Strategy - Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) - Q1 2017 85
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 87
Table: Chalco - Key Financial Data, 2009-2015 92
China Shenhua Energy 93
Table: China Shenhua Energy - Key Financial Data 95
Regional Overview 96
Asia - Asia Mining: The Five Key Themes 96
Indonesian Ban Moderation Ahead 97
Minimal Consolidation So Far In China's Oversupplied Metal Sectors 99
India Mining To Outperform 100
Heightened Environmental Protection 101
Resource Nationalism To Weigh On Investment 103
Methodology 105
Industry Forecast Methodology 105
Sources 106
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 107
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 108

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