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  4. > Indonesia Mining Report Q1 2016

Indonesia Mining Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 74 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Indonesia's mineral production growth will slow on the back of the country's ban on mineralexports and continued mineral price weakness.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

- With the boom years in commodity prices behind us, we believe more miners in Indonesia will be forcedto put the brakes on investment over the coming quarters. In January 2014, the government implementedthe ban on unprocessed minerals, in order to stimulate smelter construction and increase mineral exportvalue.

- Contrary to numerous smelter project proposals in 2014 and our past expectations on high smelterinvestment from China, smelter investment for bauxite has been stagnant with just one local smelterowned by Inalum completed in 2014 and all other projects halted to date. This will lead to furtherproduction cuts by bauxite miners in the near term. As such, we have revised down our forecasts as weexpect the majority of new smelter projects will not materialise due to both low bauxite prices and themineral ore export ban staying in place over the coming quarters. We have revised down our averageannual bauxite production growth forecast for Indonesia down from 550% to 40.0%, 58.0% to -4.0% and20.0% to -4.0% for 2015, 2016 and 2017, respectively.

Table Of Contents

Indonesia Mining Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Indonesia - Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2019) 7
Latest Developments and Structural Trends 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Bauxite: Growth To Recover Gradually 11
Latest Developments 11
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (Indonesia 2014-2019) 11
Structural Trends 12
Coal: Slow Growth In Years To Come 16
Latest developments 16
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Indonesia 2011-2019) 16
Structural Trends 16
Production Fall In 2015 19
Table: Indonesia - Select Coal Projects 19
Copper: Growth Cooling Down 23
Latest Developments 23
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Indonesia 2011-2019) 23
Structural Developments 23
Grasberg To Drive Output Growth 25
Table: Indonesia - Major Copper Projects 25
Nickel: Production Making A Recovery 27
Latest Developments 27
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2020) 27
Structural Trends 27
Ban Moderation Unlikely 27
Modest Price Growth 29
Table: Indonesia - Largest Nickel Projects 29
Smelters Being Built 29
Tin: Refined Export Control Will Limit Growth 31
Latest Developments 31
Table: Tin Production Forecast (Indonesia 2011-2019) 31
Structural Trends 31
Failure To Maintain Export Quota 32
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 35
Indonesia - Risk/Reward Index 35
Rewards 35
Industry Rewards 35
Country Rewards 35
Risks 35
Industry Risks 35
Country Risks 36
Asia - Risk/Reward Index 36
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index 38
Regulatory Development 39
Key Developments 39
Ban Moderation On The Horizon 39
Table: Indonesia - Export Restrictions On Select Commodities 40
The 2009 Mining Law 40
Trade and Investment Risk Analysis 42
Commodities Forecast 45
Commodities Outlook 45
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 45
Competitive Landscape 46
Key Players 46
Table: Financial Data For Key Mining Firms Listed In Indonesia 47
Company Profile 49
PT Antam 49
Table: PT Antam - Key Financial Data 51
PT Bumi Resources 53
Table: Bumi Resources - Key Financial Data 55
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) 56
Table: ITMG - Key Financial Data 57
PT Timah 58
Table: PT Timah - Key Financial Data 60
Global Company Strategy - Freeport-McMoRan - Q1 2016 61
Company Strategy 63
Latest Results 64
Financial Data 65
Table: Freeport-McMoRan - Key Financial Data 65
Address Details 65
Regional Overview 66
Asia Mining: The Four Key Themes 66
Key Themes 66
Australia To Dominate Iron Ore Sector 66
Indian Coal Consumption To Remain Solid 67
Weak Chinese Demand To Keep Prices Low 68
Indonesian Ban Moderation Increasingly Likely 69
Methodology 71
Industry Forecast Methodology 71
Sources 72
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 73
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 74

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