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Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 72 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
Sustained lower prices are restricting investment in the Azeri oil sector and risk accelerating decline rates at the country's major maturing assets. After stabilisation in 2016, we forecast renewed downside to Azeri oil production from 2017, due to a lack of new output brought on stream. Condensates production from the Shah Deniz Phase II will offer temporary upside in 2019, but this will be insufficient to sustainably reverse the overall trend of decline. Gas production is set for significant growth and we note large upside risk over the longer term, due to a substantial undeveloped resource base and growing plans for investment. However, production will lag unrestrained demand in the coming years, putting a temporary lid on consumption. The refining sector will continue to struggle, due to low complexity and ageing infrastructure and a continued lack of investment.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts


- The country boasts substantial, prospective and underexplored acreage, in particular offshore in the South Caspian basin. SOCAR has also announced plans to restart onshore exploration, targeting ultra-deep oil deposits.

- A shortage of drilling rigs continues to delimit drilling activity in the Caspian Sea. A spate of exploration and appraisal, development and production wells are set to be spud by 2017; SOCAR needs to secure additional drilling rigs in the coming quarters if it is to avoid the emergence of a major bottleneck in its upstream.

Table Of Contents

Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2017
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Azerbaijan 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Upstream Projects 14
Upstream Production - Oil 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Oil Production (Azerbaijan 2014-2019) 17
Table: Oil Production (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 17
Upstream Production - Gas 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Gas Production (Azerbaijan 2014-2019) 20
Table: Gas Production (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 20
Refining 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Azerbaijan 2014-2019) 23
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 24
Refined Fuels Consumption 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Azerbaijan 2014-2019) 26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 27
Gas Consumption 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Gas Consumption (Azerbaijan 2014-2019) 29
Table: Gas Consumption (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 30
Trade - Oil 31
Latest Updates 31
Crude Oil Trade 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Azerbaijan Crude Oil Assay 31
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2014-2020) 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 35
Refined Fuels Trade Forecast 35
Structural Trends 35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2014-2019) 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 37
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: Gas Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2014-2019) 39
Table: Gas Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 41
Azerbaijan - Risk/Reward Index 41
Upstream Index 41
Downstream Index 41
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 42
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 42
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices 43
Upstream: Above Ground Risks Limit Underground Potential 43
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 46
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 46
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 49
Market Overview 50
Azerbaijan Energy Market Overview 50
Regulatory Structure 50
Licensing Regime 50
Fiscal Regime 50
Table: Azerbaijan PSC Main Fiscal Terms 51
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 52
Refineries 52
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Refineries 52
Oil Pipelines 52
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Oil Pipelines 52
Gas Pipelines 52
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Gas Pipelines 52
Oil Terminals and Ports 53
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Oil Trade Facilities 53
Oil Storage Facilities 53
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Oil Storage Facilities 53
Gas Storage Facilities 53
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Gas Storage Facilities 53
Company Profile 54
SOCAR 54
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Azerbaijan 55
Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn 55
AIOC 56
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Azerbaijan 57
Regional Overview 58
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Regional Overview 58
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 58
Oil Consumption: Long-Term Growth To Be Gentle 59
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 60
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand-Dependent 61
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 62
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 63
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Production and Consumption, Refining Capacity and Trade 64
Glossary 65
Table: Glossary Of Terms 65
Methodology 67
Industry Forecast Methodology 67
Source 69
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 69
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 71
Table: Weighting 72

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