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Botswana Mining Report Q1 2016

  • November 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 48 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We expect diamond production in Botswana to grow from 2016, supporting a rise in the overallvalue of the country's mining sector over the next few years. However, the reliance on this product inBotswana's overall framework is a concern as diamond prices underperform globally and the country'sproduction is estimated to have contracted by 1.6% in 2015. At present, plans to invigorate activity in othersub-sectors, including coal mining, are being held back by a lack of transportation and otherinfrastructure.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends:

? We have revised our estimates for Botswana's 2015 diamond production downwards and now estimateoutput to have contracted by 1.6% in 2015 to 23.42mn carats. Our revision follows news that Diamondoutput from Botswana's leading diamond miner, Debswana slid 4% in H115, to 12mn carats, with thecompany cutting their production target for the year by 13.0%, from 23mn carats to 20mn carats. Weakdemand from major buyers such as China has left dealers with few options but to slash prices in an effortto clear the supply glut. According to the Rapaport Group's diamond pricing list, average prices for topquality 1 carat stones dropped by about 13% between January 2015 and September. This hastrickled down to miners who have had to drop their prices accordingly. China's economic rebalancing andslowdown in luxury spending has contributed to oversupply in the market and prompted mining firms tocut their 2015 production targets. Meanwhile, diamond exports have also fallen steadily over recentquarters as low global prices and lacklustre external demand have lead companies to cut productiontargets.

Table Of Contents

Botswana Mining Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Botswana Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2019) 7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends: 7
Industry Forecast 11
Output To recover In 2016 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 13
Table: Botswana - Main Diamond Projects 13
Table: Diamond Production (Botswana 2012-2019) 15
Coal: Infrastructure Key To Tapping Growth Potential 16
Latest Developments 16
Structural Trends 17
Table: Botswana - Coal Deposits 18
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Botswana 2012-2019) 19
Industry Risk/Reward Index 20
Botswana Risk/Reward Index 20
Rewards 20
Industry Rewards 20
Country Rewards 20
Risks 20
Industry Risks 20
Country Risks 21
Africa: Major Risks Remain 21
Key Takeaways 21
Latest Revisions 22
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index 23
Regulatory Development 24
Table: Africa - Mining Regulatory Outlook 25
Commodities Forecast 27
Commodities Outlook 27
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 27
Competitive Landscape 28
International and Domestic Key Players 28
Company Profile 30
Global Company Strategy - Norilsk Nickel - Q1 2016 30
Company Overview 31
Company Strategy 32
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Supply Chain Analysis 33
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Key Financial Data 34
Global Company Strategy - Anglo American - Q1 2016 35
Company Strategy 37
Latest Results 38
Table: Anglo American - Financial Data 39
Regional Overview 40
Africa Mining: The Four Key Themes 40
Key Themes 40
Chinese Investment To Continue 40
Iron Ore Price Weakness To Curb Growth 41
Regulatory Uncertainty To Curb Growth 42
Mining To Remain Key Contributor To GDP 44
Methodology 45
Industry Forecast Methodology 45
Sources 46
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 47
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 48

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