Romania Telecommunications Industry Update Quarter 1 2012

  • December 2013
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 104 pages

BMI's Q112 update of the Romania Telecommunications Report contains analysis of the industry data from the major fixed telephony, broadband and mobile service providers for the period to the end of September 2011. It also contains data published by Romania's telecoms segment regulator ANCOM. This quarter we have extended our projections for the country's mobile, fixed telephony and broadband subscriber industry s segments through to 2016. The report also contains revised projections for mobile ARPUs. Romania's mobile segment lost a further 239,000 subscribers in Q311, with Vodafone and Cosmote reporting negative subscriber growth. By contrast, Orange Romania reported positive customer growth in Q311. We also estimate that DigiMobil continued to secure positive net additions based on the popularity of multi-play packages offered by parent industry player RCS&RDS. The Q311 customer losses added to those recorded in Q111 and Q211. In the 12 months to December 31, we estimate that
Romania's mobile segment contracted by 6.7% to reach 27.766mn. Our new projection expects the industry to shrink by a further 2.5% in 2012. However, we maintain our view that positive growth will be achieved in the latter years of our projection, following the recent 'clean-up' of the segment . BMI projections almost 27.4mn mobile subscribers in 2016, equivalent to a penetration rate of just over 129%.
In 2011 we estimate that Romania's industry weighted monthly blended ARPU to increase by 3.0% to reach RON26.7 (US Dollar 6). The major factor driving up monthly blended ARPUs is the discounting of inactive subscribers. We believe ARPUs will continue to increase in 2012 before embarking on a gradual decline. Factors that will have a positive impact on monthly blended ARPU include improving macroeconomic conditions, as well as the ongoing migration of consumers from prepaid to postpaid subscriptions. They also include the growing use of mobile data services.
Our new fixed-line projection for Romania envisages a steady decline, as mobile services erode the industry and as VoIP-based offerings draw customers away from traditional fixed lines. By the end of 2016 we expect the penetration rate to have reached 18.8%. Meanwhile, our new broadband projection envisages a subscriber base of just over 7mn at the end of 2016, a penetration rate of almost 32%.
Recent developments of note within Romania's telecoms segment include the October 2011 announcement that the regulator was planning a tender for four Long Term Evolution (LTE) licences inH212. The new concessions will allow access to the 800MHz, 900MHz and 2600MHz spectrum bands.
Romania has risen from 14th to 13th position in BMI's latest set of Business Environment Ratings for the Emerging Europe region. With the exception of Country Risks, Romania continues to score below the regional average in all of the categories assessed by BMI.

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary ........ 5
Industry SWOT Analysis 6
Romania Mobile Industry Environment and Risk Analysis .......... 6
Romania Fixed-Line and Broadband Industry Environment and Risk Analysis .............. 7
Romania Political Environment and Risk Analysis ...... 8
Romania Economic Environment and Risk Analysis .... 8
Romania Business Environment SWOT 9

Environment Overview . 10
Central And Eastern Europe .... 10
Data : Central And Eastern Europe Business Environment Rankings . 13
Romania ... 14

Market Projection Scenario ........... 16
Mobile ...... 16
Data : Mobile - Historical Data and Projections .... 16
ARPU ....... 18
Data : ARPU - Historical Data and Projections ..... 18
Fixed Line 20
Data : Fixed Line - Historical Data and Projections ............... 20
Internet .... 22
Data : Internet - Historical Data And Projections 22
Market Data Analysis .... 24
Mobile ...... 24
Data : Mobile Industry, September 2011 ............. 27
Data : Comparison Of Operators' Net Additions (‘000) Q409-Q311 .. 28
3G ....... 33
Mobile Contract Wins ......... 36
Data : Mobile Contract Wins .............. 36
Mobile Operator Data ............. 37
Data : Total Industry Romania ............. 37
Data : Orange ..... 37
Data : Vodafone.. 38
Data : Cosmote ... 38
Mobile Content - Regional Outlook ......... 40
Data : Mobile Broadband Subscriptions By Operator ........ 41
Top 10 Sites By Visits On Opera Mini-browser, Select Countries In CEE ........... 43
Country Outlook . 44
Data : SMS, MMS and 3G Video Call Traffic ........ 46
Value-Added Services Timeline........... 50
Data : Selected VAS Services .............. 50
Fixed Line 51
Broadband ............... 55
Data : Total Industry Romania ............. 55
Data : Number Of Active ISPs, from 2008 to 2010 ......... 56
Data : Firms Interested In WiMAX Licence Tender ... 60
Data : Wireline Developments from 2008 to 2011 .......... 63
Converged Service Operator Data s ........ 64
Data : Romtelecom ............. 64
Data : UPC Romania .......... 64
Regulatory Environment............... 65
Market Development ........... 69

Industry Developments ....... 70

Competition Overview 73
Key Players .............. 73
Data : Key Players: Romanian Telecoms Industries ............. 73
Data : Selected Operators Financial Indicators . 73
Company Monitor .......... 74
Data : Ericsson Nikola Tesla: Key Contracts, from 2010 to 2011 .. 78
Company Profiles .......... 79
Romtelecom ........ 79
Cosmote Romania ............... 83
Vodafone Romania .............. 86
Orange Romania . 90
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview ............... 93
Fixed Line ........... 93
Data : Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview ............. 93
Broadband .......... 94
Data : Regional Broadband Penetration Overview ............ 94
Mobile . 95
Data : Regional Mobile Penetration Overview ... 96
Country Snapshot: Romania Demographic Data ........ 97

Section I : Population ............... 97

Section II : Education And Health Care .... 98
Data : Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....... 98

Section III : Labour Industry And Spending Power ...... 99
Data : Employment Indicators, from 2001 to 2006 ......... 99
Data : Consumer Expenditure, from 2005 to 2010 (US$) ..............100
Data : Average Annual Wages, from 2006 to 2010 ........100
Glossary Of Terms ...... 101
Data : Glossary Of Terms ..101
BMI Methodology ........ 102
How We Generate Our Market Projections .............102
Data : Key Indicators For Telecommunications Market Projections ...102
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 104
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ....104
Data : Ratings Indicators ..105
Weighting ...........106
Data : Weighting Of Indicators .........106
Sources ..............106

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