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Russia Power Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 84 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
The Russian power sector is expected to continue to face severe challenges in 2017, amid a persisting global oil glut, a weak economic return to growth, rising political tensions that further undermine investor sentiments and a depreciated rouble. Following four consecutive years of falling consumption levels, further issues of over-capacity leave little incentive for growth in the power market, leading to a muted outlook for the sector in our ten-year forecast.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends


- Ongoing economic and political tensions continue to play a crucial role for our 2017 outlook of Russia's power sector. The annexation of Crimea and the Russian military intervention in Syria have increasingly been perceived as Russian belligerence towards the West and thereby shattered investor confidence, deterring significant foreign investment. Meanwhile, global oil prices continue to be affected by a global oil glut with prices of about USD50/bbl in late 2016, and expected to continue in early 2017. These developments in combination with tight credit conditions and a depreciated rouble have made the government's budget assumptions untenable, which will necessitate further spending cuts.

- While these fiscal pressures in Russia appear to be accelerating the privatisation of stakes in state-owned companies, including state-owned oil giant Rosneft, we are sceptical this will play out according to plan, given deep suspicion among the Russian population of privatisations following the experience of the 1990s, as well as the reluctance of President Vladimir Putin to relinquish control over strategic assets, and in particular at severely discounted valuations.

Table Of Contents

Russia Power Report Q1 2017
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Russia 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Russia Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Russia 2015-2019) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Russia 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Russia Power Forecast Scenario 12
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast 16
Table: Russia's Energy Strategy 2030 19
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 27
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2019) 27
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Russia 2020-2025) 28
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2019) 29
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Russia 2020-2025) 29
Electricity Consumption 30
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2019) 30
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Russia 2020-2025) 30
Transmission and Distribution, Import And Export 31
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2019) 34
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Russia 2020-2025) 34
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2019) 34
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Russia 2020-2025) 34
Industry Risk/Reward Index 35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 35
Table: Georgia's Rewards Score To Be Supported By Institutional Funding 42
Russia Power Risk/Reward Index 42
Rewards 42
Risks 43
Market Overview 44
Key Policies And Market Structure 44
Regulation And Competition 44
Sustainable Energy Policies 45
Pricing 46
Russia Power Projects Database 48
Competitive Landscape 52
Federal Grid Company (FGC) 53
Inter RAO UES 53
Gazprom Energoholding 54
Unipro (E ON) 54
Enel 55
Company Profile 56
Inter RAO 56
Unipro (Uniper/E ON) 60
Regional Overview 70
Glossary 78
Table: Glossary Of Terms 78
Methodology 79
Methodology And Sources 79
Industry Forecast Methodology 79
Sources 82
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 82
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 83
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 84

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