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Turkey Power Report Q1 2016

  • November 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 59 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We continue to expect Turkey to remain the most attractive power market in the CEE regionthis quarter. We foresee power demand in Turkey to be robust over the next decade, given the high levels ofinvestment being channelled into its power sector, the country's capacity expansion plans and its improvingeconomic outlook. There is also considerable political backing for power sector expansion as thegovernment continues to strive for greater energy security and to lower the country's heavy reliance onimports of natural gas through expanding domestic capacity - with renewables and domestically sourcedcoal leading the way. Yet, while the outlook is bright, the development of Turkey's power sector iscomplicated by the county's precarious economic and political position.

Key Trends And Developments

- We expect thermal generation to dominate the electricity generation mix to the end of our forecast period.While coal- and gas-fired will grow in absolute terms, we expect both to lose their share of generation tohydropower and non-renewables (and potentially nuclear). By 2024 we expect gas to account for 40.37%of total electricity generation (as opposed to 41.75% in 2015), coal to account for 24.81%, hydropower toaccount for 22.06% and non-hydro renewables to generate 12.08% of all electricity.

Table Of Contents

Turkey Power Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Turkey Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkey 2014-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkey 2019-2024) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Turkey Power Forecast Scenario 11
Privatisation Process Gaining Traction 12
A Combustible Mix 13
Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast 13
Coal Generation And Capacity Forecast 15
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast 18
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 19
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 20
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 21
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2018) 21
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2019-2024) 22
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2018) 23
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2019-2024) 24
Electricity Consumption 24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2018) 25
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2019-2024) 25
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports 25
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2018) 26
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2019-2024) 26
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2018) 26
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2019-2024) 27
Industry Risk/Reward Index 28
CEE Power RRI 28
Turkey Power Risk/Reward Index 34
Rewards 34
Risks 34
Market Overview 36
Key Policies And Market Structure 36
Regulation And Competition 36
Sustainable Energy Policies 38
Pricing 40
Turkey Power Projects Database 41
Table: Major Projects - Power 41
Competitive Landscape 43
Regional Overview 45
CEE Power Regional Overview 45
Glossary 53
Table: Glossary Of Terms 53
Methodology 54
Methodology And Sources 54
Industry Forecast Methodology 54
Sources 57
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 57
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 58
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 59

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