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Philippines Power Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 70 pages

BMI View: We expect robust growth in the power sector in the Philippines, with total generation expected to expand by an average by 4.9% during our 10-year forecast period to 2024. With recovery from the 2013 typhoon gathering pace, reasonable domestic economic growth and a range of new projects being announced, overall the future is looking positive for the Philippine power market. Latest Updates And Structural Trends Notwithstanding the adverse effects that linger from Typhoon Haiyan that struck the Philippines in late 2013, we still expect to see growth in the longer term, with a range of projects including coal-fired plants and various renewable energy constructions in the pipeline.

We forecast total electricity generation growth of 4.8% in 2015, reaching 76.8TWh. Further growth throughout the forecast period means total generation is expected to reach 118TWh by 2024. Thermal energy will continue to dominate the energy market in the Philippines, accounting for over 70% of total electricity generation in 2015. Healthy growth is expected across coal, natural gas and hydropower. However, we expect to see small declines in oil generation.

Table Of Contents

Philippines Power Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Philippines 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Philippines Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Philippines 2014-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Philippines 2019-2024) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Philippines Power Forecast Scenario 11
Gas Generation And Capacity Forecasts 11
Coal Generation And Capacity Forecasts 12
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecasts 14
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecasts 15
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 16
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2013-2018) 16
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2019-2024) 17
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2013-2018) 18
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2019-2024) 19
Electricity Consumption 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2013-2018) 21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2019-2024) 22
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports 22
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2013-2018) 24
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2019-2024) 24
Industry Risk/Reward Index 25
Asia Power Risk/Reward Index 25
Philippines Power Risk/Reward Index 30
Rewards 30
Risks 31
Market Overview 32
Key Policies And Market Structure 32
Regulation And Competition 32
Sustainable Energy Policies 34
Pricing 34
Philippines Power Projects Database 36
Table: Philippines Power Projects Database 36
Competitive Landscape 51
Napocor 52
The National Transmission Corporation (TransCo) 53
First Gen 54
Aboitiz Power 54
Ayala Corporation 55
Mirant 55
Meralco 56
EDC 57
AES 57
Regional Overview 58
Asia Power Regional Overview 58
Glossary 64
Table: Glossary Of Terms 64
Methodology 65
Methodology And Sources 65
Industry Forecast Methodology 65
Sources 68
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 68
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 69
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 70

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