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Ukraine Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 105 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: A volatile security situation and continuing geopolitical tensions hamper exploration andproduction activities in Ukraine. Regulatory challenges, illustrated by recent tax hikes on oil, gas andmineral extraction, are expected to act as a further deterrent to investment in Ukraine's oil and gas sector.The gas deal between Russia, the EU and Ukraine signed in September 2015 will supply sufficient gas forUkraine to get through the 2015-2016 winter with an uninterrupted supply. A harsh winter however wouldseverely deplete storage and force Ukraine to accelerate its gas efficiency plans moving into winter 2016.

Key forecasts and developments:

- The exits of Chevron and Shell from their respective shale gas exploration projects highlight thedownside risk to our gas reserves forecasts over the coming quarters.

- Despite large reserves and an active exploration scene, gas production in Ukraine is forecast to continueshrinking across our forecast period to 2024. Upstream activities will suffer from an unpredictableregulatory and fiscal environment, the legal uncertainties regarding offshore Crimean licenses and theongoing security situation in the East of the country.

Table Of Contents

Ukraine Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Ukraine 2013-2019) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Key Upstream Projects In Ukraine 14
Upstream Production - Oil 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Oil Production (Ukraine 2013-2018) 17
Table: Oil Production (Ukraine 2019-2024) 17
Upstream Production - Gas 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Gas Production (Ukraine 2013-2018) 20
Table: Gas Production (Ukraine 2019-2024) 21
Refining 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ukraine 2013-2018) 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ukraine 2019-2024) 24
Refined Fuel Consumption 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ukraine 2013-2018) 26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ukraine 2019-2024) 27
Gas Consumption 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trend 28
Table: Gas Consumption (Ukraine 2013-2018) 31
Table: Gas Consumption (Ukraine 2019-2024) 31
Trade - Oil 32
Crude Oil 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ukraine 2013-2019) 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ukraine 2019-2024) 34
Refined Fuels 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ukraine 2013-2018) 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ukraine 2019-2024) 36
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: Reverse Flow Gas Pipeline Connection Capacity From EU To Ukraine 39
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ukraine 2013-2018) 41
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ukraine 2019-2024) 42
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 43
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 43
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 43
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 44
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 44
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 47
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 47
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 49
Ukraine - Risk/Reward Index 50
Market Overview 52
Ukraine Energy Market Overview 52
Regulatory Structure 52
Fiscal Regime 53
Table: Ukraine Fiscal Regime Terms 53
Licensing Regime 53
Table: Ukraine Licensing Regime 54
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 55
Oil Refineries 55
Table: Refineries In Ukraine 56
Oil Pipelines 58
LNG Terminals 60
Gas Storage 61
Gas Pipelines 61
Competitive Landscape 64
Competitive Landscape Summary 64
Table: Key Players - Ukraine Oil And Gas Sector 65
Table: Key Upstream Players 65
Table: Key Downstream Players 65
Company Profile 66
Naftogaz Ukrainy 66
Rosneft 72
Lukoil Ukraine 74
JKX Oil and Gas 77
Galnaftogaz 82
Other Summaries 85
Regional Overview 90
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Regional Overview 90
Oil Production: Caspian Remains Centre Of Growth 90
Oil Consumption: Fuels Demand Gradually Strengthening 91
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Additions 92
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up To Feed Red Dragon 93
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 94
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 95
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Production and Consumption, Refining Capacity and Trade 96
Glossary 98
Table: Glossary Of Terms 98
Methodology 100
Industry Forecast Methodology 100
Source 102
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 102
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 104
Table: Weighting 105

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