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United States Agribusiness Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 72 pages

BMI View: Corn and soybean production season will decline year-on-year in the upcoming 2016/17, yetwill still be among the largest crops in US agricultural history. Livestock will see some mild improvement inproduction growth in 2015/16, mainly owing to the poultry and beef sectors. Over the long term, the poultrysub-sector will remain the outperformer in the livestock complex and we see the strongest productiongrowth potential for soybeans among the grains complex. We believe grains production will stagnateoverall due to a lower planted area on the back of lower prices.

Key Trends

- Beef production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 7% to 11.9mn tonnes. The length of the cattle cyclemeans we expect production to stagnate until the end of our forecast period, but we expect improvementsin production starting in 2016.

- Poultry production growth to 2018/19: 7% to 23.3mn tonnes. The US is the world's second-largestpoultry exporter, behind Brazil. As such, increased global demand for poultry, particularly from emergingmarkets, is likely to serve as a powerful production incentive.

- Corn production growth to 2018/19: 4.0% to 360.7mn tonnes. Corn production growth will slow overthe next five years as opportunities to increase yields (such as through the adoption of GM seeds) arewaning.

Table Of Contents

United States Agribusiness Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 10
Grains Outlook 10
Table: United States - Grains Production and Consumption Outlook 10
Table: Risks To Outlook 11
Table: United States - Barley, Corn and Wheat Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 12
Dairy Outlook 13
Table: United States - Dairy Production and Consumption Outlook 14
Table: Risks To Outlook 14
Table: United States - Dairy Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 16
Soybean Outlook 17
Table: United States - Soybean Production and Consumption Outlook 17
Table: Risks To Outlook 17
Table: United States - Soybean Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 19
Sugar Outlook 20
Table: United States - Sugar Production and Consumption Outlook 20
Table: Risks To Outlook 20
Table: United States - Sugar Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 22
Livestock Outlook 23
Table: United States - Livestock Production and Consumption Outlook 23
Table: Risks To Outlook 24
Table: United States - Beef, Pork and Poultry Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 26
Cotton Outlook 27
Table: United States - Cotton Production and Consumption Outlook 27
Table: Risks To Outlook 28
Table: United States - Cotton Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 29
Commodities Price Analysis 30
Global Commodities Strategy 30
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 30
Upstream Analysis 32
Americas GM Outlook 32
Americas Machinery Outlook 40
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 43
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 47
Downstream Analysis 54
Food 54
Food Consumption 54
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (United States 2012-2019) 55
Confectionery 55
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (United States 2012-2019) 56
Dairy 56
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (United States 2014-2019) 57
Regional Overview 58
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 58
Competitive Landscape 65
Table: United States Agribusiness Competitive Landscape 65
Demographic Forecast 66
Table: Population Headline Indicators (United States 1990-2025) 67
Table: Key Population Ratios (United States 1990-2025) 67
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (United States 1990-2025) 68
Table: Population By Age Group (United States 1990-2025) 68
Table: Population By Age Group % (United States 1990-2025) 69
Methodology 71
Industry Forecast Methodology 71
Sector-Specific Methodology 72

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