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Japan Real Estate Report 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 61 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: In 2016 we expect a fall in vacancy rates in all three commercial real estate sub-sectors wecover, as demand continues to outstrip supply. In the longer term, government efforts to kick-start real GDPgrowth will have favourable effects on the real estate sector, leading to new development opportunities.Rental rates are stable and are not expected to rise significantly, and with the introduction of new projectsover the coming five years, the balance between supply and demand will become more even.Japan is on a track for a slow recovery as its economy crawls out of a recession, reflected in 0.0% growthduring 2014. We expect growth to remain sluggish in 2016, despite government efforts to boost real GDP.Historically Japanese exports have been the prime contributor to GDP growth, and in an effort to boosttrade volumes, the government and the Bank of Japan have ensured that the yen remains weak. While this isexpected to boost trade volumes, major trade partners in China are experiencing their worst period offinancial instability and growth since the global financial crisis. Therefore, while we do forecast growth forJapan, it is dependent on trade, exposing the country to fluctuations in commodity prices and trade partnerperformance. For 2016 we forecast minimal real GDP growth of 0.6%.

Table Of Contents

Japan Real Estate Report 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Operational Risk 13
Industry Forecast 15
Office Forecast 15
Table: Office Rental Rates, 2010-2015 (per square metre per month) 18
Table: Forecast Office Net Yields And Spread, 2012-2019 (%) 19
Retail Forecast 20
Table: Retail Rental Rates, 2010-2015 (per square metre per month) 23
Table: Retail Yields And Spread Forecast, 2012-2019 (%) 24
Industrial Forecast 25
Table: Industrial Rental Rates, 2011-2015 (per sq m per month) 27
Table: Industrial Net Yields And Spread, 2012-2019 (%) 28
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview 29
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Japan 2013-2018) 29
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Japan 2019-2024) 29
Table: Japan - Public Housing Plan For Disaster-Hit Victims, Units 31
Table: Japan - Status Of Land Acquisition For Mass Relocation Projects 31
Macroeconomic Forecasts 39
Economic Analysis 39
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 43
Industry Risk/Reward Index 43
Table: Japan Real Estate Risk Reward Index 43
Rewards 44
Risks 44
Market Overview 45
Competitive Landscape 48
Property Developers 48
Property Managers 49
Demographic Forecast 52
Demographic Outlook 52
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Japan 1990-2025) 53
Table: Key Population Ratios (Japan 1990-2025) 53
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Japan 1990-2025) 54
Table: Population By Age Group (Japan 1990-2025) 54
Table: Population By Age Group % (Japan 1990-2025) 55
Methodology 57
Industry Forecast Methodology 57
Sources 58
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 59
Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Index Indicators 60
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 61

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