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Germany Defence and Security Report 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 44 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Germany will increase defence spending over the coming years, in order to move ahead withBundeswehr reform and expansion plans, amid regional tensions over the Ukraine conflict and migrantcrisis, growing threats from terrorism, and in response to NATO military requirements. The government'splanned budget increase will be facilitated by steady economic growth, and a healthy fiscal position. In theshort- to medium-term, the MoD will focus on strengthening the army's capabilities - substantially growingits stock of land systems. The country's highly developed domestic defence industry will capture the majorityof new contracts, although we do note that German authorities are working to strengthen Europe-widecollaboration on defence programmes, and will seek to support cross-border projects through investmentand procurement over our forecast period to 2025.

Recent Developments:

- In 2016, Berlin aims to raise the defence budget by 4.2% y-o-y to EUR34.4bn, growing to EUR36.6bn in2017. 2018-2019 will see moderate increases, and by 2020, the government plans a defence budget ofEUR39.2bn. Our expenditure forecasts are slightly higher than the stated figures, as we are likely to seesome additional funding approvals amid steady overall economic growth.

- In January 2016, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced a 15-year, EUR130bn defence equipmentspending package. The army looks set receive the majority of this funding in the near term, as the MoDrevealed plans to significantly increase its stock of land systems.

- Also in January, Germany issued its new Air Capability Strategy Paper outlining plans to replace itsageing CH-53 heavy-lift helicopters; develop a next-generation weapon system complementary to theEurofighter Typhoon, as a successor to the Panavia Tornado; upgrade its P3C Orion maritime patrol andanti-submarine warfare aircraft; and join the multi-role tanker transport (MRTT) fleet with theNetherlands, Norway and Poland.

- In September 2015, the German MoD announced that it had decided to fully replace the Bundeswehr'sHeckler & Koch (HK) G36 service rifle by 2019.

- In November 2015, Reuters reported that Airbus had received a USD14mn fine from the German MoDfor delays in the delivery of A400Ms.

Table Of Contents

Germany Defence and Security Report 2016
BMI Industry View 5
Table: Headline Defence Expenditure Forecasts (Germany 2015-2020) 5
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Defence Expenditure 10
Table: Defence Expenditure (Germany 2014-2019) 11
Table: Defence Expenditure (Germany 2020-2025) 11
Defence Trade 12
Industry Risk/Reward Index 15
Defence Industry Risk Reward Index 15
Table: Europe - Defence Industry Risk Reward Index 15
Market Overview 18
Defence Market Overview 18
Domestic Defence Sector 18
Domestic Defence Market 22
Armed Forces Overview 26
Armed Forces 26
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Germany 2008-2015) 26
Table: German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) - International Deployments 29
Security Overview 30
Domestic Threats 30
Regional Threats 33
International Threats 34
Company Profile 36
Airbus Group 36
Krauss-Maffei Wegmann 39
Rheinmetall Group 41
Methodology 42
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 42
Sector-Specific Methodology 43
Table: Defence Risk/Reward Index Indicators 43
Weighting 44
Table: Weighting of Defence Risk Reward Index 44

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