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Hong Kong Real Estate Report 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 63 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


>BMI View:
The office sub-sector is likely to perform better than retail and industrial real estate over the next two years. However, the outlook for all three sub-sectors points to greater vibrancy, with higher levels of activity in both the leasing and investment market as economic growth picks up momentum from 2017 onwards. Economic growth in Hong Kong is expected to be weak in 2017, with GDP forecast to rise by 1.7%. This reflects the slowdown in domestic demand and residential real estate market, as well as China-related external headwinds which will continue to undermine trade activity. The rate of growth is forecast to improve slightly to 2.5% in 2018 and to stabilise at this level through to 2021. All three real estate sub-sectors that we cover will be impacted by the economic situation, albeit to varying degrees. In the office market, occupier demand is likely to hold up, largely due to the interest from financial institutions from mainland China that are keen to establish their presence in Hong Kong. The Central CBD area should benefit most from activity by this group of occupiers. Outside of CBD, the markets are likely to be attractive to companies keen to relocate in order to reduce costs. Kowloon East has in particular been an area targeted by these companies in 2016, and we expect this to continue in 2017. Significant levels of office construction are taking place, but the majority of these are in Kowloon East. Construction is also underway in Hong Kong Island, but these are all outside of the Central CBD. With vacancy rates at only 3.7% in the CBD, we expect office rents to continue to rise in 2017. In contrast, vacancy rates are higher in Kowloon; and with more new supply scheduled to come on the market in the next five years, we expect rents to soften marginally.

Table Of Contents

Hong Kong Real Estate Report 2017
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Operational Risk 13
Industry Forecast 15
Office Forecast 15
Table: Office Rental Rates 2011-2017 19
Table: Office Yields 2011-2021 21
Retail Forecast 22
Table: Retail Rental Rates 2011-2017 25
Table: Retail Yields 2011-2021 26
Industrial Forecast 27
Table: Industrial Rental Rates 2011-2017 30
Table: Industrial Yields 2011-2021 31
Residential/Non-Residential Construction - Outlook And Overview 32
Latest Developments 32
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Hong Kong 2015-2025) 32
Structural Trends 32
Residential Building 33
Non-Residential Building 36
Social Infrastructure 36
Table: Construction And Social Infrastructure Projects 37
Macroeconomic Forecasts 38
Economic Analysis 38
Industry Risk/Reward Index 42
Hong Kong Risk/Reward Index 42
Table: Asia Real Estate Risk Reward Index 42
Rewards 42
Risks 43
Market Overview 45
Competitive Landscape 47
Demographic Forecast 54
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Hong Kong 1990-2025) 55
Table: Key Population Ratios (Hong Kong 1990-2025) 55
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Hong Kong 1990-2025) 56
Table: Population By Age Group (Hong Kong 1990-2025) 56
Table: Population By Age Group % (Hong Kong 1990-2025) 57
Methodology 59
Industry Forecast Methodology 59
Sources 60
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 61
Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Index Indicators 62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 63

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