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Bahrain Retail Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 69 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

The Bahrain retail industry is one of the most prosperous in the world, boosted by an affluentand urban population (which is expected to grow in size due to an increased number of expats) and anincrease in the level of income on the back of economic growth. Shopping centres are common in the capitalof Manama, and the population is familiar with modern retail formats and informed on internationalbrands. More shopping complexes are expected to be built in the future to support the growing demand. Thefood and drinks sector is less mature and has much room to grow, and retailers have a chance to establishthemselves in this growing sector.Bahrain's economy is expected to increase at a strong rate and reach USD45bn by 2019, seeing an increaseof USD10bn from its level in 2015. Though the increase is impressive, it is not, in absolute terms, in thesame league with some of its more illustrious Middle Eastern neighbours, such as the UAE or Qatar. This ismostly due to Bahrain's size, which is relatively small, and a population of only 1mn, which limits themarket size for retailers. Like all the Gulf States, Bahrain was affected by the drop in oil prices in 2014, asBahrain - though not a large producer of oil - has a large industry that processes and refines oil which comesfrom nearby producers. The decline in oil prices has stabilised, and while the growth in the economy willnot be as strong as over 2011-2014, it will still be healthy and consistent. The high economic growth meansthat the average Bahraini is reasonably wealthy with per capita income of USD10,567 in 2015, which isfurther boosted by the fact that taxation is relatively low.

Table Of Contents

Bahrain Retail Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT 9
Retail SWOT . 9
Political . 11
Economic ... 13
Industry Forecast .. 14
Headline Retail Forecast .. 14
Table: Total Household Spending (Bahrain 2012-2019) . 14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Bahrain 2012-2019) 17
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Bahrain 2012-2019) 17
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Bahrain 2012-2019) 18
Retail Sector Forecast .. 19
Food, Drink and Tobacco .. 21
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (Bahrain 2012-2019) . 22
Clothing and Footwear .. 22
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (Bahrain 2012-2019) 23
Household Goods ... 23
Table: Household Goods Spending (Bahrain 2012-2019) 24
Personal Care ... 24
Table: Personal Care Spending (Bahrain 2012-2019) . 25
Household Numbers And Income Forecast ... 25
Table: Household Income Data (Bahrain 2012-2019) . 26
Table: Labour Market Data (Bahrain 2012-2019) . 28
Demographic Forecast . 29
Table: Total Population (Bahrain 2012-2019) . 30
Table: Population: Babies (Bahrain 2012-2019) . 31
Table: Population: Young Children (Bahrain 2012-2019) . 31
Table: Population: Children (Bahrain 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Bahrain 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Young People (Bahrain 2012-2019) . 32
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Bahrain 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Bahrain 2012-2019) . 33
Table: Population: Young Adults (Bahrain 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Bahrain 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Urban (Bahrain 2012-2019) . 34
Macroeconomic Forecasts ... 35
Economic Analysis ... 35
Table: Bahrain - Real GDP Growth, % Chg Y-O-Y 39
Table: Bahrain - Components of GDP (% of total) . 41
Table: Government Consumption Forecasts . 43
Table: Private Consumption Forecasts . 43
Table: Bahrain - Main Infrastructure and Industrial Developments . 44
Table: Fixed Investment Forecasts . 45
Table: Net Exports Forecasts . 45
Industry Risk/Reward Index . 46
Middle East And North Africa Risk/Reward Index .. 46
Table: Middle East And North Africa Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116 . 46
Bahrain - Risk/Reward Index . 47
Rewards ... 47
Risks 48
Market Overview ... 49
Competitive Landscape 52
Glossary . 56
Methodology .. 63
Industry Forecast Methodology 63
Sources 66
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 66
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 67
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 69

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