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Israel Retail Report Q1 2016

  • November 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 70 pages

BMI View

: Israel's retailers will benefit from growing household incomes in the next four years, which willstimulate all retail sub-sectors, mostly housing and education. Meanwhile, groceries and non-essentialsspending will grow slower than the overall retail sector. Security risks will harm sales early in the forecastperiod as consumers begin avoiding unnecessary shopping, however, we expect the situation to stabilizeand improve in the medium term.We are currently forecasting real GDP growth of 2.6% over 2015, down from 2.8% recorded during 2014and this will accelerate to 3.4% in 2016.

While we forecast the economic growth to remain stable, pressureon the currency is key and this will result in a projected drop in spending (in USD terms) from USD125bnto USD122bn in the retail sector most of which can be attributed to currency fluctuation rather than adecline in demand. However, we do expect a swift recovery of household incomes and spending, both inshekel and dollar terms over forecast period. Net household income is estimated to grow by 6.4% annuallyon average throughout the forecast period, which will shift some household spending patterns.

Table Of Contents

Israel Retail Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Retail SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic 13
Industry Forecast 14
Headline Retail Forecast 14
Table: Total Household Spending (Israel 2012-2019) 15
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Israel 2012-2019) 15
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Israel 2012-2019) 17
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Israel 2012-2019) 20
Retail Sector Forecast 21
Food, Drink and Tobacco 23
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (Israel 2012-2019) 24
Clothing and Footwear 24
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (Israel 2012-2019) 25
Household Goods 25
Table: Household Goods Spending (Israel 2012-2019) 26
Personal Care 26
Table: Personal Care Spending (Israel 2012-2019) 27
Household Numbers And Income Forecast 28
Table: Household Income Data (Israel 2012-2019) 30
Table: Labour Market Data (Israel 2012-2019) 31
Demographic Forecast 34
Table: Total Population (Israel 2012-2019) 37
Table: Population: Babies (Israel 2012-2019) 37
Table: Population: Young Children (Israel 2012-2019) 37
Table: Population: Children (Israel 2012-2019) 38
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Israel 2012-2019) 38
Table: Population: Young People (Israel 2012-2019) 38
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Israel 2012-2019) 39
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Israel 2012-2019) 39
Table: Population: Young Adults (Israel 2012-2019) 39
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Israel 2012-2019) 40
Table: Population: Urban (Israel 2012-2019) 40
Macroeconomic Forecasts 41
Israel - Private Consumption And Exports To Drive Growth Acceleration 41
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 43
Table: Private Consumption Forecasts 45
Table: Government Consumption Forecasts 45
Table: Fixed Investment Forecasts 46
Table: Net Exports Forecast 46
Industry Risk Reward Index 47
Middle East And North Africa Risk/Reward Index 47
Table: Middle East And North Africa Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116 47
Israel Risk/Reward Index 48
Rewards 48
Risks 49
Market Overview 51
Competitive Landscape 53
Department Stores 53
Mass Grocery Retail 54
Fashion 54
Consumer Electronics 55
Glossary 57
Methodology 64
Industry Forecast Methodology 64
Sources 67
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 67
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 68
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 70

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