Pakistan Telecommunications Industry Update Quarter 1 2012

  • November 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 91 pages

BMI’s Q112 update on Pakistan’s telecommunications industry contains new five-year growth projections for the development of the country’s mobile telephony, internet usage and fixed-line segments . This quarter we have extended our projections through to the end of 2016. Since our last update, new operational data has become available for Q211 and (in some cases) Q311. This data has been published by Pakistan’s telecoms segment regulator, Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA), and several of the country’s network operators. These include the Norwegian telco Telenor and Egypt’s Orascom Telecom. These two industry players own Pakistan’s two largest mobile network operators.
In H111, Pakistan’s mobile market grew by 6.0%. The country’s mobile subscriber base grew to 108.89mn. For 2011 as a whole, we estimate that Pakistan’s mobile customer base grew by just over 12% to reach 115.2mn, a penetration rate of just over 65%. In future, we expect the relatively low penetration of mobile services, especially in rural regions, to encourage mobile operators to continue grow ing their network and pursue subscribers aggressively.
Recent noteworthy developments in Pakistan’s telecoms industry include the news in September that the government had formed a cabinet committee, with responsibility for resolving the dispute over auction of 3G licences. Pakistan's government previously revealed plans to issue the country’s first 3G concessions in October, expressing hopes that the sale process would generate as much as US Dollar 1bn. However, the government failed to meet this target date and the licensing process will not occur until 2012.
Our new projection expects around 500,000 3G subscribers at the end of 2012. This number has potential to increase rapidly over the next few years and our new projection predicts around 3.5mn subscribers at the end of 2016.
Also, in September 2011 the chairman of Pakistan’s telecoms regulator proposed that the state use around PKR80bn (US Dollar 909mn) generated by the country’s Universal Service Fund (USF) to help increase broadband penetration. Pakistan had 1.397mn broadband subscribers at the end of May 2011. This was up from 1.141mn at the end of 2010. We estimate that Pakistan’s broadband market grew by 59% in 2011, down from the 77% growth rate in 2010. By the end of 2011 the number of broadband subscribers had risen to over 1.8mn, a penetration rate of 1%.
Pakistan has risen from 12th to 11th position in BMI’s latest set of Business Environment Ratings for the Asia Pacific telecoms industries. Although Pakistan receives a lower score in the Market Risks category, it receives a higher Country Risks rating. These changes have affected Pakistan’s overall score, which has fallen from 51 to 50.1. However, a weaker performance by the Philippines has helped push Pakistan further up our table. Pakistan is now ahead of Bangladesh and the Philippines, but several points behind India.

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary . 6
Industry SWOT Analysis 7
Pakistan Wireline Industry SWOT Analysis 7
Pakistan Mobile Industry SWOT Analysis .. 8
Pakistan Political Environment and Risk Analysis .. 9
Pakistan Economic Environment and Risk Analysis . 10
Pakistan Business Environment SWOT 11

Environment Overview Ratings .. 12
Asia Pacific 12
Asia Pacific Business Environment Ratings, Q112 16
Pakistan .. 17

Market Projection Scenario 19
Mobile . 19
Data : Telecoms Segment - Mobile - Historical Data And Projections .. 19
ARPU 21
Data : Pakistan Telecoms Segment - Mobile ARPU - Historical Data And Projections (PKR) .. 21
Fixed-Line . 23
Data : Telecoms Segment - Fixed Line - Historical Data And Projections 23
Internet .. 25
Data : Telecoms Segment - Internet - Historical Data And Projections . 25
Market Data Analysis 27
Mobile . 27
Data : Pakistan Mobile Industry, June 2011 .. 28
Data : Mobile Base Stations By Operator.. 29
Subscriber Mix And ARPU .. 30
3G .. 31
Mobile Contract Wins .. 34
Data : Mobile Contract Wins 34
Mobile Operator Data 35
Data : Pakistan Industry Overview.. 35
Data : Zong Telecoms .. 35
Data : Mobilink .. 36
Data : Telenor . 37
Data : Ufone . 38
Data : Warid Telecoms 38
Mobile Content .. 39
Regional Outlook 39
Regional Outlook 39
Data : Selected NFC Developments, 2011 . 40
Country Outlook . 45
Value-Added Services Timeline 48
Data : Selected VAS Services (2008-2011) 48
Fixed Line . 49
Data : Pakistan Fixed-Line Industry, December 2010 .. 49
Wireless Local Loop (WLL) .. 50
Data : Pakistan Wireless Local Loop Industry, June 2011 .. 50
Pakistsan WLL Sites By Operator .. 52
Broadband 54
Broadband Platforms 57
Wireline Developments 59
Data : Wireline (Fixed-Line and Broadband) Developments . 59
Regulatory Environment And

Industry Developments 60
Data : Pakistan’s Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 60
Regulatory Developments .. 62

Industry Developments 63

Competition Overview .. 65
Competitor Analysis . 65
Data : Key Firms - Pakistan Telecommunications Segment 65
Company Monitor 66
Data : HTC: Q211 Profit and Loss Indicators (TWDbn) 67
Company Profiles 73
Pakistan Telecommunication Firms Ltd (PTCL) . 73
TeleCard . 77
Mobilink .. 79
Telenor Pakistan . 82
Warid Telecom . 85

Industry Analysis .. 87
Fixed Line .. 87
Data : Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 87
Mobile .. 88
Data : Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 88
Broadband . 89
Data : Regional Broadband Penetration Overview .. 89
Country Snapshot: Pakistan Demographic Data . 90

Section I : Population .. 90
Data : Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 90
Data : Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 91

Section II : Education And Healthcare . 91
Data : Education, from 2002 to 2005 .. 91
Data : Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 .. 91
Data : Employment Indicators, from 2001 to 2006 92

Section III : Labour Industry And Spending Power 93

Section III : Labour Industry And Spending Power 93
Data : Consumer Expenditure, from 2000 to 2012 (US$) .. 93
Data : Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, from 2000 to 2012 .. 93
Glossary Of Terms . 94
Data : Glossary Of Terms .. 94
BMI Methodology 95
How We Generate Our Market Projections .. 95
Data : Key Indicators For Telecommunications Market Projections .. 95
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 97
Data : Ratings Indicators .. 98
Weighting 99
Data : Weighting Of Indicators .. 99
Sources 99

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