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Saudi Arabia Defence and Security Report 2015

  • June 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 82 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Saudi Arabia's domestic defence sector remains small on a global comparison. As such, the country relies heavily on imports to meet the requirements of its armed forces. Saudi Arabia' military expenditure is among the highest in the world, driven by government concerns over the perceived strengthening of Iranian influence in the region; the external as well as internal expansion of Islamist militant groups hostile to the House of Saud (such as the Islamic State and AQAP); and rising sectarian tensions in oil-rich Eastern Province, where a large number of Shi'a Muslims reside. As a result of these dynamics, we expect demand for military equipment to remain strong over the next five years - particularly in the sea segment, as the Saudi Navy embarks on an extensive modernisation programme of its Eastern Fleet.
In 2015 we expect Saudi Arabia's defence spending to amount to USD56.7bn, representing a decline of 4.1% year-on-year (y-o-y). This reduction reflects a slowdown in overall economic growth than a lowering of the government's defence sector budget allocation - as illustrated by the fact that military expenditure as a percentage of GDP remains high at a forecast 7.6%. The Saudi-led campaign against Houthi rebels in Yemen; its strengthening of border security to prevent terrorists and criminals from entering the country; its support for Sunni allies in the wider region; as well as its continued investment into state-of-the-art military equipment to counter the threat of its regional rival Iran will require substantial funding over the course of the year.

Table Of Contents

Saudi Arabia Defence and Security Report 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis 10
Political 12
Economic 14
Operational Risk 15
Industry Forecast 17
Defence Expenditure 17
Table: Defence Expenditure (Saudi Arabia 2012-2019) 18
Armed Forces 19
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Saudi Arabia 2005-2012) 20
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Saudi Arabia 2012-2019) 21
Defence Trade 21
Table: Defence Exports (Saudi Arabia 2012-2019) 23
Table: Defence Imports (Saudi Arabia 2012-2019) 25
Macroeconomic Forecasts 26
Economic Analysis 26
Table: Bmi Crude Oil Price Forecast 28
Industry Risk Reward Index 35
Saudi Arabia Security Risk Index 35
Table: Middle East and Africa - Defence Industry Risk Reward Index 35
Rewards 36
Risks 36
Market Overview 38
Saudi Arabia Defence Market Overview 38
Domestic Defence Sector 39
Domestic Defence Market 41
International Partnerships And Defence Agreements 44
Table: Saudi Arabia - Bilateral Defence Agreements 46
Saudi Arabia Security Overview 47
Domestic Threats 47
Regional Threats 50
International Threats 54
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 55
Company Profile 56
BAE Systems 56
Thales International 57
Regional Overview 58
Middle East And North Africa Security Overview 58
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security 58
Regional Power Dynamics 66
Nuclear Proliferation 69
External Powers 70
Global Industry Overview 72
Political Risk Analysis 72
Methodology 79
Sector-Specific Methodology 80
Table: Defence Risk Reward Index Indicators 80
Weighting 81
Table: Weighting of Defence Risk Reward Index 81

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