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Saudi Arabia Defence and Security Report 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 49 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Reduced government revenues amid lower oil prices will negatively impact Saudi militaryspending growth in the short term. However, facilitated by high oil production and a strong fiscal position,the kingdom's defence budget will see robust long-term expansion driven by Riyadh's rivalry with Tehran,risks of spillover from instability in neighbouring states and rising threats from Islamist militancy, sectarianviolence and social unrest. Efforts to secure land borders, fight terrorism and assist allies in regionalconflicts will drive procurement of ground and air equipment, while the need to protect the kingdom'sterritory and shipping routes from Iran will drive investment into strengthening naval, as well as airdefence capabilities. Work to develop the local defence sector under Vision 2030 will take many years, anddomestic defence companies' ability to meet requests for technologically advanced equipment will remainlimited over our forecast period.Recent Developments

- As part of its Vision 2030 plan, the Saudi government seeks to increase the share of defence spending onlocally-produced equipment and services to 50% in the next 15 years.

- Cuts in public spending and subsidies are being undertaken, and may raise the longer-term potential forsocial unrest.

- Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran have intensified. Riyadh's execution of prominent Shi'a clericNimr al-Nimr - which in turn sparked an attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran - led to a severance ofdiplomatic ties between the two countries in January 2016.

- Following Riyadh's execution of al-Qaeda militants convicted of terrorist crimes in January 2016, thegroup's leader al-Zawahiri called for new attacks on Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, several Islamic Stateattacks have occurred in Saudi Arabia in the last few months.

- Riyadh has stated that it is considering an intervention against IS in Syria.

- Riyadh suspended its USD3bn aid package to Lebanon in February 2016.

Table Of Contents

Saudi Arabia Defence and Security Report 2016
BMI Industry View 5
Table: Defence Expenditure Headline Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2015-2020) 5
SWOT Analysis 8
Defence Industry SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Defence Expenditure 10
Table: Defence Expenditure (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019) 11
Table: Defence Expenditure (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025) 11
Defence Trade 13
Table: SAUDI ARABIA - BILATERAL DEFENCE AGREEMENTS 16
Industry Risk Reward Index 17
Defence Industry Risk Reward Index 17
Table: Middle East and Africa - Defence Industry Risk Reward Index 17
Rewards 18
Risks 18
Market Overview 20
Defence Market Overview 20
Domestic Defence Sector 20
Domestic Defence Market 24
Armed Forces Overview 28
Armed Forces 28
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Saudi Arabia 2008-2013) 29
Security Overview 32
Domestic Threats 32
Regional Threats 36
International Threats 40
Company Profile 42
BAE Systems 42
Thales International 44
Methodology 45
Industry Forecast Methodology 45
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 46
Sector-Specific Methodology 48
Table: Defence Risk/Reward Index Indicators 48
Weighting 49
Table: Weighting of Defence Risk Reward Index 49

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