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South Africa Retail Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 62 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Despite South Africa's ongoing economic and power supply problems, the retail sector remainsconfident and plans for the development of many more shopping malls shows no sign of abatement.Continued modernisation of the country's urban retail real estate sector is helping to attract internationalretail groups who are keen to cater to the country's expanding middle class. Following Krispy Kreme'slaunch in Johannesburg in Q415, US-based competitor Dunkin Donuts has also expressed an interest in themarket and coffee giant Starbucks aims to make its entry into the South African market in the first half of2016.Although recession in South Africa is a possibility as we enter 2016, this is not our core view. The economyshrank by 1.3% during the second quarter; however, the economy has shown some sign of improvementduring the summer of 2015. This was illustrated by the fact that Power utility company, Eskom marked fiveweeks by mid-September without load shedding. A more stable power supply will be important in ensuringthe decline in growth does not continue in the short term and this will help elevate both consumer andbusiness confidence. Nonetheless- additional headwinds will linger from the country's endemic level ofunemployment, which stands at 24.2%.

Table Of Contents

South Africa Retail Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Industry Forecast 12
Headline Retail Forecast 12
Table: Total Household Spending (South Africa 2012-2019) 13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (South Africa 2012-2019) 13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (South Africa 2012-2019) 15
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (South Africa 2012-2019) 17
Retail Sector Forecast 18
Food, Drink and Tobacco 19
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (South Africa 2012-2019) 20
Clothing and Footwear 20
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (South Africa 2012-2019) 21
Household Goods 21
Table: Household Goods Spending (South Africa 2012-2019) 22
Personal Care And Effects 23
Table: Personal Care Spending (South Africa 2012-2019) 23
Household Numbers And Income Forecast 23
Table: Household Income Data (South Africa 2012-2019) 25
Table: Labour Market Data (South Africa 2012-2019) 27
Demographic Forecast 28
Table: Total Population (South Africa 2012-2019) 30
Table: Population: Babies (South Africa 2012-2019) 30
Table: Population: Young Children (South Africa 2012-2019) 30
Table: Population: Children (South Africa 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (South Africa 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Young People (South Africa 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (South Africa 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: 21yrs + (South Africa 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Young Adults (South Africa 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Middle Aged (South Africa 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Urban (South Africa 2012-2019) 33
Macroeconomic Forecasts 34
Economic Analysis 34
Table: Economic Activity (South Africa 2010-2019) 36
Industry Risk Reward Index 37
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index 37
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116 37
South Africa - Risk/Reward Index 38
Rewards 38
Risks 39
Market Overview 40
Mass Grocery Retail 41
Department Stores 42
Competitive Landscape 44
Department Store Groups 44
Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) 45
Fashion 46
Consumer Electronics 47
Glossary 49
Methodology 56
Industry Forecast Methodology 56
Sources 59
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 59
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 60
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 62

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