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Kazakhstan Mining Report Q1 2016

  • November 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 53 pages

BMI View

: We maintain a bullish outlook as to the long-term expansion of Kazakhstan's mining sector,with the country becoming an increasingly attractive destination for investment. However, we note thatimmediate challenges will threaten to weigh on production growth over the next few years. We have revisedour zinc output forecasts for the country downwards and retain cautious outlook with regards to coal andiron ore.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- We still expect to see positive growth in Kazakhstani coal and iron ore production over the next fewyears, despite a deteriorating price outlook for both these markets. We forecast coal output to grow by1.2% y-o-y over 2015-2019, while iron ore production will expand by 1.9% a year over the period.

- However, we have made significant downwards revisions to our zinc production estimates since the lastquarter, following Glencore's decision to cut zinc production across its global operations and especiallythose located in Kazakhstan. The company is the majority share holder of Kazzinc, which accounts forover 90.0% of the country's total zinc production in 2014. As such, we revised down Kazakhstan's zincproduction growth from 2.4% to -15.0% and 1.4% to -18.0% for 2015 and 2016, respectively. We expect2015 output to total 281kt and 2016 output to be only 230kt. The country's zinc mining industry valuewill fall slightly, from 4.8% to 4.0%.

Table Of Contents

Kazakhstan Mining Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Kazakhstan Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2019) 7
Industry Forecast 9
Coal: China, India To Drive Long-Term Growth 9
Latest Updates 9
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Kazakhstan 2012-2019) 9
Structural Trends 11
Country's Energy Needs Reliant On Coal 11
Industry Set For Solid Growth 12
Iron Ore: Downside Risk To Forecasts 14
Latest Developments 14
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (Kazakhstan 2012-2019) 14
Structural Trends 16
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 17
Kazakhstan Risk/Reward Index 17
Rewards 17
Risks 17
Europe: Majority To Be Low Risk-Reward 19
Table: Europe - Mining Risk/Reward Index 21
Regulatory Development 22
Table: Kazakhstan - Mineral Extraction Taxes 22
Trade and Investment Risk Analysis 24
Commodities Forecast 27
Commodities Outlook 27
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 27
Competitive Landscape 28
Company Profile 29
KAZ Minerals 29
Table: KAZ Minerals - Financial Results 32
Eurasian Natural Resources 33
Table: Eurasian Resources - Financial Results 34
Regional Overview 35
Europe Mining: The Four Key Themes 35
Key Themes: 35
Russia and Poland To Defy Regional Slowdown 35
US Dollar Strength To Influence Trade Dynamics 37
Coal: Russia To Be Growth Bright Spot 38
Rare Earth Production To Shift Westwards 39
Global Industry Overview 41
Global Overview 41
1 Capex To Focus On Innovation 41
2 US Dollar Strength To Anchor Weak Metal Prices 42
3 Brazil And Australia To Defy Slowdown 43
4 Overseas Investment Appetite To Slow 45
5 2016 Key Bright Spots 48
Methodology 50
Industry Forecast Methodology 50
Sources 51
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 52
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 53

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