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Russia Mining Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 70 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Russia's gold and coal production growth will be the sector's relative bright spots, while PGM'sand iron ore output growth will grind to a halt. Low metal prices, the country's inadequate infrastructureand Western sanctions will continue to limit the sector's production growth.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

- Although Russia's mining sector holds significant production growth potential, due to its rich mineraldeposits, including coal, iron ore, gold and platinum, the country's bureaucratic hurdles, Westernsanctions and weak mineral prices will limit new projects from coming online and weaken mining outputgrowth over the coming quarters.

- With 157 billion tonnes (bnt) of coal deposits, Russia's holds the second-largest recoverable coal reservesin the world. We expect Russia's coal production to grow from 383 million tonnes (mnt) in 2015 to418mnt in 2019, as production ramps up in country's Kuznet's basin. This would represent an averageannual production growth of 2.3% during 2016-2019, significantly lower than the average 6.4% over2010-2014.

Table Of Contents

Russia Mining Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Russia Mining Industry Value 7
Latest Developments and Structural Trends 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Coal: Eastward Shift To Support Sector 11
Latest Developments 11
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Russia 2014-2019) 11
Structural Trends 11
Exports To Shift To Asia 14
Infrastructure: The Key Downside 17
Table: Russia - Distance From Coal Production Area To Shipping Seaport 18
Gold: Modest Growth Despite Headwinds 20
Latest Developments 20
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Russia 2014-2019) 20
Structural Trends 21
Regulatory Environment To Curb Growth 23
Iron Ore: Modest Growth Despite Headwinds 24
Latest Developments 24
Table: Iron Ore Production (Russia, 2014-2019) 24
Structural Trends 24
Nickel: Challenges Lie Ahead 29
Latest Developments 29
Table: Nickel Mine Production (Russia, 2014-2019) 29
Structural Trends 29
Palladium: Growth To Pick Up After 2019 32
Latest Developments 32
Table: Palladium Production (Russia 2014-2019) 32
Structural Trends 32
Platinum: Growth To Stagnate 36
Latest Developments 36
Table: Platinum Production (Russia 2014-2019) 36
Table: Russia - Largest Platinum Projects 36
Structural Trends 36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 40
Russia Risk/Reward Index 40
Rewards 40
Industry Rewards 40
Country Rewards 40
Risks 40
Industry Risks 40
Country Risks 41
Europe: Majority To Be Low Risk-Reward 41
Table: Europe - Mining Risk/Reward Index 43
Regulatory Development 44
Trade and Investment Risk Analysis 44
Commodities Forecast 48
Commodities Outlook 48
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 48
Competitive Landscape 49
Main Players 49
Table: Russia - Key Financial Data For Select Mining Companies 50
Company Profile 51
Polyus Gold 51
Table: Polyus Gold - Financial Data 54
SUEK 55
Global Company Strategy - Norilsk Nickel - Q1 2016 58
Company Overview 59
Company Strategy 60
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Supply Chain Analysis 62
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Key Financial Data 63
Regional Overview 64
Europe: Majority To Be Low Risk-Reward 64
Table: Europe - Mining Risk/Reward Index 66
Methodology 67
Industry Forecast Methodology 67
Sources 68
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 69
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 70

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ref:plp2015

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