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South Africa Power Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 67 pages

BMI View: Our negative outlook for South Africa's power sector continues to remain in place this quarter.Inefficient existing generation capacity, a lack of investment, delays to project commissioning and theprecarious financial situation of Eskom show little sign of abating over the short- to- medium-term. On amore positive note, we highlight that South Africa's power plant and transmission grid infrastructure willcontinue to offer investment opportunities over our forecast period and beyond, thanks to a buoyantrenewables industry, pressure on state utility Eskom to boost generation to avoid power shortages, andSouth Africa's nascent nuclear expansion plans.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- In 2014, electricity generation in South Africa stood at 237.0 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a 1.26%decrease on the previous year. Coal-fired sources of electricity accounted for 93.15% of this figure, andwe expect that coal will continue to play a major role in electricity production during the course of ourforecast period, rising by an average of 1.31% to stand at 251.33TWh in 2024. Economic growth anddemographics will both drive demand upwards.

- South Africa's non-hydro renewables capacity will nearly triple over our 10-year forecast period and thecountry will lead the SSA region for installed renewables capacity by 2024. The attractive regulatoryenvironment, high investor interest and strong power demand in the country will be the main drivingforces underpinning growth. We expect non-hydro renewables capacity to triple over our 10-year forecastperiod, reaching 8.7GW by 2024. Annual average growth rates will be 17.4% between 2015 and 2024,with non-hydro renewables generating over 15 terawatt hours (TWh) by 2024.

Table Of Contents

South Africa Power Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
South Africa Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (South Africa 2014-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (South Africa 2019-2024) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
South Africa Power Forecast Scenario 11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 11
Thermal Generation and Thermal Generating Capacity 14
Nuclear Generation And Nuclear Generating Capacity 18
Table: South Africa: Nuclear Reactors 19
Renewables Generation And Renewables Generating Capacity 20
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2018) 23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2019-2024) 24
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2018) 25
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2019-2024) 25
Electricity Consumption 26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2018) 27
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2019-2024) 27
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports 28
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2018) 29
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2019-2024) 29
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2018) 29
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2019-2024) 29
Industry Risk/Reward Index 30
SSA Power RRI 30
South Africa Power Risk/Reward Index 36
Rewards 36
Risks 37
Market Overview 38
Key Policies And Market Structure 38
Regulation And Competition 38
Sustainable Energy Policies 39
Pricing 41
South Africa Power Projects Database 43
Table: South Africa - Top 10 Power Projects By Capacity 43
Competitive Landscape 45
Company Profile 46
Eskom 46
Regional Overview 52
MEA Power: Key Regional Themes 52
Glossary 61
Table: Glossary Of Terms 61
Methodology 62
Methodology And Sources 62
Industry Forecast Methodology 62
Sources 65
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 65
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 66
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 67

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