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Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 85 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
Turkmenistan's actual gas production will remain limited by its limited export options. With Russia and Iran increasingly reducing imports of Turkmen gas and with other large-scale exports (notably TAPI) unlikely to materialise over our 10-year forecast period, the country's production will remain almost entirely dependent on domestic consumption growth and export levels to China.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts


- The difficult business environment will dissuade several international investors from entering the market, notably at a time of capital expenditure cut backs as oil prices remain low. For example, German company DEA Deutsche Erdoel relinquished its Caspian Sea concession as of October 2015 over frustration at excess bureaucracy, corruption and a lack of permit granting.

- Despite its large gas production potential, Turkmenistan's actual production will remain limited by its export options. With Russia and Iran increasingly reducing imports of Turkmen gas, the country's production will remain almost entirely dependent on domestic consumption growth and export levels to China. With economic slowdown in China and Russia quitting Turkmen gas imports, we have recently reduced our gas production outlook for Turkmenistan over our 10-year forecast period.

Table Of Contents

Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2017
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 13
Table: Turkmenistan Major Upstream Projects 13
Upstream Production - Oil 14
Latest Updates 14
Structural Trends 14
Table: Oil Production (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 17
Table: Oil Production (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 17
Upstream Production - Gas 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Gas Production (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 22
Table: Gas Production (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 23
Refining 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 27
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 27
Refined Fuels Consumption 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 30
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 30
Gas Consumption 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 33
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 34
Trade - Oil 35
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 35
Latest Updates 35
Structural Trends 35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2014-2020) 36
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 36
Refined Fuels Trade Forecasts 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 38
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 39
Latest Updates 39
Structural Trends 39
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 46
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 46
Industry Risk Reward Index 47
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 47
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 47
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices 48
Upstream: Above Ground Risks Limit Underground Potential 48
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 51
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 51
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 54
Turkmenistan - Risk/Reward Index 55
Upstream Index 55
Downstream Index 56
Market Overview 57
Turkmenistan Energy Market Overview 57
Table: Upstream Projects 58
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 59
Oil Refineries 59
Oil Storage Facilities 59
Oil Terminals/Ports 60
Gas Pipelines 60
Competitive Landscape 67
Competitive Landscape 67
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies 68
Table: Key Upstream Players 68
Table: Downstream Players 68
Company Profile 69
Turkmengaz 69
Table: Major Upstream Asset in Turkmenistan 70
Regional Overview 71
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Regional Overview 71
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 71
Oil Consumption: Long-Term Growth To Be Gentle 72
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 73
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand-Dependent 74
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 75
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 76
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Production and Consumption, Refining Capacity and Trade 77
Glossary 78
Table: Glossary Of Terms 78
Methodology 80
Industry Forecast Methodology 80
Source 82
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 82
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 84
Table: Weighting 85

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