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United Arab Emirates Retail Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 66 pages

BMI View: We retain optimistic growth forecasts for the UAE's retail market. The next four years leading to Dubai Expo 2020 will give a boost to the economic diversification, as gargantuan infrastructural and private projects pick up steam. Consumer confidence is likely to remain intact and inbound tourism is set to persist, both of which will continue rewarding retailers with unparalleled opportunities until 2019. The UAE is highly reliant on oil revenue; as a result, the fall in oil prices during the end of 2014 and beginning of 2015 resulted in a damage to the UAE economy. After a shock, the real GDP increased by 3.9% in 2014, a marked improvement from growth of just 1.6% in 2010. We expect to see real GDP growth reach 4.0% in 2015 and this will bode well for growth in the UAE's retail market.

Household spending is expected to increase as GDP increases due to higher levels of income. The increase in household spending is driven by the increase in total households as well as the increase in households in the high-income bracket. However, the increase in household spending is offset by the fact that almost 40% of it is consistently taken up on expenditure on housing and utilities due to the extremely high rates of rent in the UAE. Outside of spending on housing and utilities, spending on food and drink represents the largest area of spending, whilst spending on clothing and footwear represents the fastest growing sub-sector during our forecast period.

Table Of Contents

United Arab Emirates Retail Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Industry Forecast 13
Headline Retail Forecast 13
Table: Total Household Spending (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019) 15
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019) 17
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019) 18
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019) 19
Retail Sector Forecast 20
Food, Drink and Tobacco 21
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019) 22
Clothing and Footwear 23
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019) 23
Household Goods 24
Table: Household Goods Spending (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019) 24
Personal Care 24
Table: Personal Care Spending (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019) 25
Household Numbers And Income Forecast 26
Table: Household Income Data (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019) 26
Table: Labour Market Data (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019) 29
Demographic Forecast 30
Table: Total Population (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Babies (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Young Children (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Children (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Young People (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: 21yrs + (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Young Adults (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019) 34
Table: Population: Middle Aged (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019) 34
Table: Population: Urban (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019) 34
Macroeconomic Forecasts 35
Economic Analysis 35
GDP By Expenditure 36
Table: UAE - Private Consumption Forecasts 37
Table: UAE - Government Consumption Forecasts 38
Table: UAE - Fixed investment Forecasts 39
Table: UAE - Net Exports Forecasts 40
Industry Risk Reward Index 41
Middle East And North Africa Risk/Reward Index 41
Table: Middle East And North Africa Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116 41
Industry Risk/Reward Index 42
Rewards 42
Risks 43
Market Overview 45
Retail Formats 45
Competitive Landscape 48
Department Stores 48
Mass Grocery Retail 49
Fashion 50
Consumer Electronics 51
Glossary 53
Methodology 60
Industry Forecast Methodology 60
Sources 63
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 63
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 66

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