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Indonesia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 94 pages

BMI View: We hold an optimistic outlook towards Indonesia's agriculture sector and see significant growthopportunities in sub-sectors such as livestock, sugar and palm oil. The country's goal to become selfsufficient in a large number of commodities is overly ambitious in light of the robust outlook for food anddrink consumption. Agricultural production will struggle to expand in the coming years amidst scarceagricultural land, the lack of proper infrastructure and the existence of a large number of low-technology,small-scale farmers. While we believe that Indonesia will be able to reduce its dependence on rice importsin the coming years, sugar, corn and beef self-sufficiency are far-fetched. More worryingly, we expectcoffee and cocoa production to record very weak production growth in the coming years.

BMI Key Forecasts

- Cocoa production growth between 2014/15 and 2019/20: 5.3% to 368,000 tonnes. Production growthwill slightly accelerate beyond 2018, as private grinders are slowly developing programmes to improveplantation management and foster best practices. Until then output will see weak growth.

- Palm oil consumption growth between 2015 and 2020: 30.1% to 12.6mn tonnes. Relatively recentrefining and biodiesel policies (B15 mandate) will continue to inflate domestic consumption of palm oilin the coming years.

- Sugar production growth between 2014/15 and 2019/20: 36.4% to 3.0mn tonnes. The strong growthrate is mainly due to base effects as production declines in 2014/15. Moderate expansion in plantationswill help output grow in the coming years, but production growth will be held back by poor canerecovery rates, harvest management and infrastructure issues.

Table Of Contents

Indonesia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Rice Outlook 12
Table: Indonesia - Rice Production and Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risks To Outlook 13
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020) 16
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (Indonesia 2011-2019) 16
Grains Outlook 17
Table: Indonesia - Grains Production and Consumption Outlook 17
Table: Risks To Outlook 18
Table: Grains Production and Consumption (Indonesia, 2013-2020) 22
Sugar Outlook 23
Table: Indonesia - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 23
Table: Risks To Outlook 24
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020) 30
Livestock Outlook 31
Table: Indonesia - Livestock Production and Consumption Outlook 32
Table: Risks To Outlook 32
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020) 36
Coffee Outlook 37
Table: Indonesia - Coffee Production and Consumption Outlook 37
Table: Risks To Outlook 38
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020) 42
Cocoa Outlook 43
Table: Indonesia - Cocoa Production and Consumption Outlook 43
Table: Risk To Outlook 44
Table: Cocoa Production and Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020) 48
Palm Oil Outlook 49
Table: Indonesia - Palm Oil Production and Consumption Outlook 50
Table: Indonesia - Risks To Palm Oil Outlook 50
Table: Indonesia - Minimum Wage ('000 IDR) and Palm Oil Production By Province, 2012-2016 55
Table: Palm Oil Production and Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020) 59
Table: Palm Oil Production and Consumption (Indonesia 2011-2019) 59
Commodities Price Analysis 60
Global Commodities Strategy 60
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 60
Upstream Analysis 62
Asia Machinery Outlook 62
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 65
Asia GM Outlook 67
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 70
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 71
Downstream Analysis 76
Food 76
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2019) 78
Canned Food 78
Confectionery 79
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2019) 80
Regional Overview 82
Table: Impact Of El Niño On Crops 82
Competitive Landscape 87
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies 87
Demographic Forecast 88
Demographic Outlook 88
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Indonesia 1990-2025) 89
Table: Key Population Ratios (Indonesia 1990-2025) 89
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Indonesia 1990-2025) 90
Table: Population By Age Group (Indonesia 1990-2025) 90
Table: Population By Age Group % (Indonesia 1990-2025) 91
Methodology 93
Industry Forecast Methodology 93
Sector-Specific Methodology 94

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