Singapore Tourism Industry Update Quarter 1 2012

  • January 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 56 pages

Another Strong Year Tourist arrivals to Singapore remained strong during 2011. Looking at data for January-October, a total of 10,925,045 tourists arrived in Singapore, a rise of 14.4% year-on-year (y-o-y), according to data from the Singapore Tourism Board (STB). Against this backdrop, we are happy to maintain our estimated of a 12% increase in tourist arrivals for the year as a whole, with perhaps some slight risks to the upside when November and December arrivals are added to the final total.
Looking at individual source industries, there was notably strong growth in arrivals from China (up by 39.4% y-o-y), Taiwan (up 25% y-o-y) and the Philippines (up 29.4% y-o-y) over the 10-month period From this data it is clear that Singapore is benefiting from the establishment of the Resorts World Sentosa and Marina Bay Sands integrated resorts, which are doing much to attract tourists to the country. We believe Singapore’s tourism success should continue beyond 2011 as more people choose to visit the new resorts, particularly from other Asian countries. However, we would expect the rate of growth in tourist arrivals to moderate over 2013-2015. We projection a total of 17.75mn same-day and overnight tourists visiting Singapore in 2015.
New International Cruise Terminal To Boost Tourism Flows In Q212, the International Cruise Terminal (ICT) is scheduled to open. In December 2011, the STB said it had appointed a joint venture between local industry player SATS and Spanish industry player Creuers del Port de Barcelona to operate the terminal for 10 years.
Once it is open, the new terminal will double Singapore’s berth capacity and enable larger cruise ships to stop at Singapore. In 2010, about 1mn cruise passengers visited Singapore, with this number expect to grow by about 30% over the next two years, according to the Singapore Cruise Centre (SCC). Royal Caribbean Cruises said it will make Singapore the homeport for its Voyager of the Seas ship, which arrives in Asia in May 2012. The region is considered as a industry with significant potential over the coming decade, with the SCC estimating the potential industry from India and China alone to be around 74mn passengers.
BMI believes Singapore is well placed to establish itself as a regional hub for cruise ships and we expect a steady increase in the number of cruise passengers arriving in the country over the projection period through to 2015. Singapore has first-mover advantage as it has been able to complete its new cruise terminal ahead of a rival destination in Hong Kong, where the new cruise terminal is not expect to open until 2013.
Singapore Airlines Launches Low-Cost Carrier In November 2011, Singapore Airlines (SIA) unveiled its long-awaited low-cost airline called Scoot. SIA is hopeful Scoot can start flights on medium- and long-haul routes using an initial fleet of four Boeing 777 aircraft by mid-2012. The airline is working closely with the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS) to get its air operator’s certificate by the end of Q112.
Scoot is aimed at young people seeking low-cost travel around Asia. The airline said it ‘will offer great value airfares up to 40% less than legacy carriers’. As such, it is widely believed Scoot will offer a lowcost basic seat price but that passengers will be able to choose to pay for extras such as on-board meals or emergency aisle seating.
Scoot will be managed and run independently from SIA and it will operate from Changi Airport terminal 2. During its first year of operations, the airline hopes to fly to Australasia and China, with destinations across India, Europe and the Middle East to follow over the coming years. Online booking for Scoot flights will start in early 2012.
It remains to be seen how profitable this new venture will be for SIA, with rival Malaysian operator AirAsia having already established a dominant position in the low-cost sector across the region. In addition, SIA already has exposure to low-cost services via its Silk Air subsidiary and its majority shareholding in Tiger Airways. That said, it is clear that demand for low-cost travel is booming in Asia and SIA believes it can use its reputation and capabilities to it advantage in the low-cost sector .

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary . 5
Industry SWOT Analysis 7
Singapore Tourism SWOT 7
Singapore Political Environment and Risk Analysis 8
Singapore Economic Environment and Risk Analysis . 9
Singapore Business Environment SWOT 10

Market Projection Scenario 11
Arrivals .. 11
Data : Arrivals, from 2007 to 2015 12
Accommodation . 12
Data : Hotels Data, from 2007 to 2015 13
Expenditure .. 13
Data : Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, from 2007 to 2015 14
Inbound Tourism 14
Data : Tourist Arrivals By Region, from 2007 to 2015 15
Data : Tourist Arrivals By Country, from 2007 to 2015 (‘000) 15
Attracting The Business Travel And MICE Industry 16
Outbound Tourism 17
Data : Outbound Tourism, from 2007 to 2015 . 17
Data : Resident Departures By Destination Country, from 2007 to 2015 (‘000) . 18

Industry Analysis - Travel 19
Commercial Airlines 19
Budget Airlines .. 20
Data : Low-Cost Airlines - Key Players, 2011 20
Cruises 21
World Oil Products Price Outlook .. 23

Industry Analysis - Hospitality . 26
Accommodation . 26
Key Players .. 26
Integrated Resorts . 27
H5N1 Update .. 29

Environment Overview Outlook .. 30
Data : Asia Pacific Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings . 30
BMI’s Security Ratings .. 31
Data : Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings . 31
Data : Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 32
Singapore’s Security Risk Ratings 32
City Terrorism Ratings .. 33
Data : BMI Asia Pacific City Terrorism Index 34
South Asia Security Overview . 35
South Asia In A World Context .. 35
External Power Dynamics . 45
The Outlook For South Asia.. 47
Singapore Tourism Report Q1 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
World Assumptions . 50
Europe On The Edge 50
Data : World Assumptions, from 2009 to 2015 .. 51
Data : World And Regional Real Gross Domestic Product Growth, from 2010 to 2013 (% chg y-o-y) 52
Data : Developed Industry Exchange Rates, from 2010 to 2013 .. 52
Data : Emerging Industry Exchange Rates, from 2010 to 2013 . 52
Developed States 53
Data : Developed States Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Projections, from 2010 to 2013 (%chg y-o-y) .. 54
Emerging Industries. 55
Data : Emerging Industries Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Projections, from 2010 to 2013 (% chg y-o-y) .. 56
Data : Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Consensus Projections, from 2011 to 2012 (%chg y-o-y) . 57
Company Profiles 58
Singapore Airlines . 58
Tiger Airways .. 61
BMI Methodology 63
How We Generate Our Market Projections .. 63
Tourism Market . 63
Tourism Ratings - Methodology . 64
Data : Tourism Business Environment Indicators . 65
Data : Weighting of Components 66
City Terrorism Ratings 66
Data : City Terrorism Ratings Methodology. 68
Sources 68

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