France Oil and Gas Industry Update Quarter 1 2012

  • December 2013
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 101 pages

BMI View: Subdued oil demand growth means the prospects for refiners and fuels distributors – already faced with strong competition and the need to maintain investment for environmental reasons – are not good. The gas industry has greater potential, both in terms of rising domestic demand and the scope to re-sell surplus LNG through regional pipeline links. A mature industry means there is a risk leading market players which are seeking higher growth and wider margins may seek to divest assets.
The main trends and developments we highlight in the French Oil and Gas segment are:
.. France-focused explorer Toreador Resources and US independent Hess won approval from the French energy ministry in June 2010 for an oil shale joint venture (JV) in the Paris Basin. However, environmental concerns over hydraulic fracturing (fraccing), the controversial drilling method used to tap reserves locked in tight shale rock formations, have scuttled these hopes. Hydraulic fracturing was banned in France in mid-2011and this policy seems unlikely to be reversed in the immediate future.
.. Gas demand is expected to rise more quickly than oil demand, with new sources of supply being lined up by GdF Suez, which has signed import agreements with Egypt in addition to those already signed with Russia, Norway, Algeria and the Netherlands. Gas consumption is likely to reach 53.5bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2016. Gas production is negligible, so imports could rise significantly to a high of around 52.9bcm by the end of the projection period.
.. In May 2011, EdF and Total confirmed that they would proceed with the US Dollar 2.2bn Nord-Pas-de- Calais Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project at Dunkirk, which is expected to add between 10bcm and 13bcm of import capacity when it comes onstream. Furthermore, there are plans to grow capacity at the Montoir-de-Bretagne terminal to 16.5bcm by 2014.
.. Thanks to improved energy efficiency and efforts to reduce oil dependency, oil demand is now expected to remain mostly flat over the coming decade. Our hypothesis s point to oil consumption reaching 1.88mn barrels per day (b/d) by 2016. Crude oil imports are expected to have reached 1.86mn b/d by 2016.
.. Crude oil imports will cost an assumed US Dollar 66.7bn in 2011, falling to US Dollar 63.4bn in 2016. With virtually no domestic gas supply, we anticipate French gas imports of 48.8bcm in 2011, costing US Dollar 24.5bn. Combined crude oil and gas imports are expected to cost France an estimated US Dollar 87.9bn by 2016.
At time of writing, we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2011 of US Dollar 101.90 per barrel (bbl), falling to US Dollar 99.40/bbl in 2012. Global Gross Domestic Product in 2011 is projection at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010, reflecting slowing growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis. For 2012, growth is put at 3.6%.

Table Of Contents

BMI Market View ... 5
Industry SWOT Analysis 6
France Oil and Gas SWOT ... 6
World Energy Industry Outlook 7
Data : World Oil Consumption, 000b/d, from 2009 to 2016 .. 10
Data : World Oil Production, 000b/d, from 2009 to 2016 . 11
Regional Energy Industry Outlook .. 13
Oil Demand.. 13
Data : Developed Europe Oil Consumption, from 2009 to 2016 (000b/d) ... 13
Oil Supply 14
Data : Developed Europe Oil Production (000b/d) 14
Oil: Downstream . 14
Data : Developed Europe Refinery Capacity, from 2009 to 2016 (000b/d) . 14
Gas Demand 15
Data : Developed Europe Gas Consumption, from 2009 to 2016 (bcm) .. 15
Gas Supply ... 16
Data : Developed Europe Gas Production, from 2009 to 2016 (bcm) . 16
Liquefied Natural Gas.. 16
Data : Developed Europe LNG Gas Imports (Exports), from 2009 to 2016 (bcm) .. 16
France Energy Industry Overview ... 17

Market Projection Scenario ... 18
Data : France Oil and Gas - Historical Data And Projections ... 18
Oil and Gas Reserves ... 19
Oil Supply And Demand ... 19
Gas Supply And Demand . 20
LNG . 20
Refining and Oil Products Trade . 21
Revenues/Import Costs. 22
Key Risks To BMI’s Projection Scenario 22
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 23
Oil Refineries ... 23
Data : Refineries In France 23
Service Stations 25
Gas Pipelines .. 26
LNG Terminals 26
Data : LNG Terminals In France ... 27
Gas Storage . 27

Competition Overview 28
Executive Summary .. 28
Data : Key Players - France Oil And Gas Segment ... 29
Overview/State Role . 29
Licensing and Regulation ... 29
Government Policy . 30
International Energy Relations ... 31
Data : Key Upstream Players . 32
Data : Key Downstream Players 33
Company Monitor .. 34
Total. 34
GdF Suez . 37
Royal Dutch Shell 40
Vermillion Energy - Summary 42
Toreador Resources - Summary . 42
EDF - Summary . 43
Tethys Oil - Summary . 43
Lundin Petroleum - Summary . 44
Egdon Resources - Summary .. 44
Delek Group - Summary . 45
Conoco/Realm - Summary .. 45

Additionnal data : Oil And Gas Long-Term Projections 46
Regional Oil Demand .. 46
Data : Developed Europe Oil Consumption (000 b/d) 46
Regional Oil Supply . 47
Data : Developed Europe Oil Production (000b/d) 47
Oil: Downstream . 47
Data : Developed Europe Refining Capacity (000b/d) ... 47
Regional Gas Demand . 48
Data : Developed Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) 48
Regional Gas Supply 48
Data : Developed Europe Gas Production (bcm) ... 48
Methodology And Risks To Projections . 49
Glossary Of Terms 50
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 51
Ratings Overview . 51
Data : BMI’s Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure ... 52
Indicators . 52
Data : BMI’s Oil and Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology ... 52
Data : BMI’s Oil and Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology 53
BMI Methodology .. 55
How We Generate Our Market Projections .. 55
Energy Market ... 55
Cross checks 56
Sources 56

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