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Uganda Infrastructure Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 33 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
Oil infrastructure development remains the nexus of robust construction industry growth between 2017 and 2025 as investment flows to bring Uganda's untapped reserves online. Improvements to existing transport and power infrastructure also underpin our forecast for growth, as overall logistics capacity must be upgraded to support oil production activity.

Forecast & Industry Developments


- We continue to forecast 7.5% real growth in 2017, as oil-related infrastructure projects are scheduled to enter construction and improvements to the transport and power networks continue to take shape.

- The removal of the Hoima Refinery from our growth forecasts has prompted a slight downgrade in our outlook between 2018 and 2019. We now anticipate the industry to expand by 6.9% in real terms over those two years, down from 7.4% previously. This has had a minimal impact on our 10-year forecast, however, with our growth outlook for 2017 to 2025 at a robust 7.7% in real terms. Risk/Reward Indices

- Uganda continues to score 37.8 out of 100 in our Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index for Sub-Saharan Africa, below the regional average of 39.2. It comes in 11th place out of 18 markets.

- The lack of a skilled labour force and the opaque tendering process remain chief deterrents to operating in the market.

Table Of Contents

Uganda Infrastructure Report Q1 2017
BMI Industry View 5
Table: Five-Year Forecast Scenario (Uganda 2016-2020) 5
Table: Risk/Reward Index (Uganda 2016) 6
SWOT 7
Infrastructure SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Infrastructure And Construction Forecast Scenario 9
Table: 10-Year Forecast Scenario (Uganda 2016-2025) 9
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 18
Uganda - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 18
Rewards 18
Risks 18
SSA Infrastructure RRI: Macroeconomic And Political Headwinds Heighten Risks 19
Table: SSA RRI 24
Methodology 26
Industry Forecast Methodology 26
Sector-Specific Methodology 27
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 31
Sector-Specific Methodology 32
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 32
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 33

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