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Canada Oil and Gas Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 137 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
We maintain our modest growth outlook for Canada's oil and gas industry given mounting headwinds in both the upstream and midstream sectors amid a low commodity price environment. The greatest threats are unfavourable project economics and regulatory headwinds that will hamper the growth of oil sands-driven production beyond 2018, much-needed midstream expansions and LNG terminal development.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts


- We maintain our Canadian crude production forecast this quarter. The wildfires which surrounded Fort McMurray posed a limited threat to the sector's continued growth, with capacity gains continuing through 2018 on the back of a strong upstream project pipeline.

- We are reaffirmed in our negative outlook on long-term crude production growth in Canada following given sustained weakness of commodity prices. This, combined with insufficient pipeline takeaway capacity, will join with the government's stronger environmental mandate to undermine proposed upstream and midstream developments.

Table Of Contents

Canada Oil and Gas Report Q1 2017
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Canada 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Shale Resources-In-Place, Alberta 15
Upstream Projects 17
Table: Canada - Key Upstream Projects 17
Upstream Production - Oil 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 25
Table: Oil Sands Commercial Breakeven Costs, USD/BBL 30
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2014-2019) 33
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2020-2025) 33
Upstream Production - Gas 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2014-2019) 39
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2020-2025) 39
Refining 39
Latest Updates 39
Structural Trends 40
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Canada 2014-2019) 43
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Canada 2020-2025) 43
Refined Fuels Consumption 44
Latest Trends 44
Structural Trends 44
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Canada 2014-2019) 47
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Canada 2020-2025) 48
Gas Consumption 49
Latest Updates 49
Structural Trends 49
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2014-2019) 52
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2020-2025) 52
Trade - Oil 52
Crude Oil 52
Latest Updates 52
Structural Trends 53
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2014-2020) 57
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025) 57
Refined Fuels 57
Latest Updates 57
Structural Trends 57
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2014-2019) 59
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025) 59
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 60
Latest Updates 60
Structural Trends 60
Table: Canadian Key LNG Export Projects 64
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2014-2019) 66
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025) 66
Industry Risk/Reward Index 67
North America And Western Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 67
Table: Developed States Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 67
Upstream RRI: Resource Base Drives Rankings 68
North America Open To Investment, At The Right Price 68
Limited Resources Elsewhere Show Through In Scores 69
Table: Developed States Upstream Risk/Reward Index 71
Downstream RRI: WTI Discount 71
Table: Developed States Downstream Risk/Reward Index 73
Canada - Risk/Reward Index 74
Upstream Index 74
Downstream Index 75
Market Overview 76
Canada Energy Market Overview 76
State Role 77
Licensing And Regulation 78
Table: Generic Offshore Petroleum Royalty Regime 83
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 85
Oil Refineries 85
Table: Downstream Projects 85
Service Stations 90
Oil Pipelines 90
LNG Regasification Terminals 96
LNG Liquefaction Terminals 97
Gas Pipelines 104
Gas Service Stations 106
Competitive Landscape 107
Competitive Landscape Summary 107
Table: Key Players - Oil And Gas Sector 109
Table: Key Upstream Players 109
Table: Key Downstream Players 110
Company Profile 111
Suncor 111
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Canada 112
Table: Key Financial Metrics, USDmn 113
Encana 114
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Canada 115
Table: Key Financial Metrics, USDmn 115
Imperial Oil 116
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Canada 117
Table: Key Financial Metrics, USDmn 117
Regional Overview 118
North America And Western Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview 118
Table: North America - Key Regional Indicators, 2015-2025 127
Table: Western Europe - Key Regional Indicators, 2015-2025 128
Glossary 130
Table: Glossary Of Terms 130
Methodology 132
Industry Forecast Methodology 132
Source 134
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 134
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 136
Table: Weighting 137

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