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China Agribusiness Report Q2 2015

  • February 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 186 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

China's weight in the global agricultural sector is swelling, as the country has a growing
impact on international production balances and prices. China will maintain a strong appetite for key commodities for the foreseeable future and we see particular potential for production growth in sugar, dairy and meat products. High demand growth, strong government support and potential for investment and consolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusiness sector is experiencing challenging times, with GDP growth slowing down, consumers' trust in food safety dwindling, food ingredients prices rising, labour costs soaring and bank loan requirements for small sized enterprises tightening.
This is best seen in the slowdown in meat and milk powder consumption in 2015 amidst low supply,elevated prices and the ongoing crackdown on red tape and government receptions, which also supported demand in recent years.

Agricultural production in China has recorded exceptional growth over recent years, driven by an expansion in area cultivated and strong growth in productivity. However, output growth is slowing down in some of the largest producers, due to pollution and land constraints. The government has acknowledged the challenge and is more reformist than ever. In 2015, China will continue to amend its stockpiling policy and will accelerate its reforms to partially liberalise land and prices, which will enable the country to maintain an elevated level of food self-sufficiency.

Table Of Contents

China Agribusiness Report Q2 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 11
Agribusiness 11
Operational Risk 13
Industry Forecast 15
Grains Outlook 15
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (China 2014-2019) 17
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (China 2014-2019) 17
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (China 2014-2019) 18
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (China 2009-2014) 25
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (China 2009-2014) 26
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (China 2009-2014) 26
Rice Outlook 28
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (China 2013-2019) 29
Table: China Grain Procurement Prices (CNY/tonne) 30
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (China 2009-2014) 35
Soybean Outlook 37
Table: Soybean Production and Consumption (China 2014-2019) 39
Table: Soybean Production and Consumption (China 2009-2014) 46
Sugar Outlook 47
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (China 2014-2019) 48
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (China 2009-2014) 54
Cotton Outlook 56
Table: Cotton Production and Consumption (China 2013-2019) 57
Table: Cotton Production and Consumption (China 2009-2014) 65
Dairy Outlook 67
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (China 2014-2019) 69
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (China 2014-2019) 69
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (China 2014-2019) 69
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production and Consumption (China 2014-2019) 70
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (China 2009-2014) 79
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (China 2009-2014) 79
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (China 2009-2014) 79
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production and Consumption (China 2009-2014) 80
Livestock Outlook 81
Table: China Beef and Veal Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 83
Table: China Pork Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 84
Table: China Poultry Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 84
Table: China Beef and Veal Production and Consumption, 2009-2013 95
Table: China Poultry Production and Consumption, 2009-2013 95
Table: China Pork Production and Consumption, 2010-2014 96
Featured Analysis 97
Agricultural Reform In Asia: Key Changes Ahead 97
Table: China - Ongoing And Future Agricultural Policy Reforms 98
Table: India - Potential Future Agricultural Policy Reforms 100
Australia China FTA: Beef, Dairy To Benefit, Wheat Missing Out 103
Table: Australia - China Free Trade Agreement - Details For The Commodities Sector 103
Commodities Price Analysis 109
Monthly Softs Strategy 109
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and Bmi Forecasts 117
Monthly Grains Strategy 118
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 126
Upstream Analysis 127
Asia GM Outlook 127
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use 131
Asia Machinery Outlook 132
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn) 134
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 138
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 141
Table: India - Fertiliser Subsidies, INR/kg 145
Downstream Analysis 147
Food 147
Key Industry Trends And Developments 147
Drink 150
Key Industry Trends And Developments 150
Mass Grocery Retail 155
Key Industry Trends And Developments 155
Regional Overview 156
Table: China - Ongoing And Future Agricultural Policy Reforms 158
Competitive Landscape 161
Table: China - Major Agribusiness Companies 161
Company Profile 162
Charoen Pokphand Foods 162
Table: Charoen Pokphand Foods' Financial Highlights, 2009-2013 171
Global Company Strategy 172
Table: Financial Highlights 179
Demographic Forecast 180
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025) 181
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025) 181
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025) 182
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025) 182
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025) 183
Methodology 185
Industry Forecast Methodology 185
Sector-Specific Methodology 186

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