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  4. > China Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

China Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 97 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: China's weight in the global agricultural sector is swelling, as the country has a growingimpact on international production balances and prices. China will maintain its appetite for keycommodities for the foreseeable future, with particular potential for production growth in sugar, dairy andlivestock. High demand growth, strong government support and the potential for investment andconsolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusinesssector is experiencing challenging times, seen in the slowdown in meat and milk powder consumption in2015.

Key Forecasts

- Corn production growth to 2019/20: 12.3% to 242mn tonnes. Given the decrease in public support tocorn production, output expansion will be driven by a steady improvements in corn yields and theprobable adoption of GM corn in the coming years. China's production deficit will amount around 6mntonnnes by the end of our forecast period.

- Pork production growth to 2019/20: 16.1% to 65.5mn tonnes. Increased production continues to beencouraged on the back of elevated local livestock prices. The increased availability of vaccinations andthe ongoing commercialisation of the industry are also likely to boost output.

- Sugar consumption growth to 2020: 18.5% to 20mn tonnes. Consumption will be boosted by risingincome, which will support demand for products in key industries, such as the confectionery, dairy,beverage, and food processing

- BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD1,410mn in 2016 (up 4.7% compared with 2015,growth forecast to average 4.2% annually between 2016 and 2020).

- 2016 real GDP growth: 6.3% (down from 6.9% expected in 2015, forecast to average 5.7% between2016 and 2020).- 2016 consumer price inflation: 1.5% y-o-y ave (up from 1.3% expected in 2015, forecast to average2.3% between 2016 and 2020).

Table Of Contents

China Agribusiness Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Grains Outlook 12
Table: China - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 13
Table: China - Risks To Grains Outlook 13
Table: Grains Production and Consumption (China 2013-2020) 18
Rice Outlook 19
Table: China - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook 19
Table: China - Risks To Rice Outlook 20
Table: China Grain Procurement Prices (CNY/tonne) 21
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (Cina 2013-2020) 22
Oilseeds Outlook 22
Table: China - Soybean Production And Consumption Outlook 23
Table: China - Risks To Soybean Outlook 24
Table: Soybean Production and Consumption (China 2013-2020) 27
Sugar Outlook 27
Table: China - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 28
Table: China - Risks To Sugar Outlook 28
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (China 2013-2020) 32
Cotton Outlook 32
Table: China - Cotton Production And Consumption Outlook 33
Table: China - Risks To Cotton Outlook 33
Table: Cotton Production and Consumption (China 2012-2020) 38
Dairy Outlook 39
Table: China - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 39
Table: China - Risks To Dairy Outlook 41
Table: Dairy Production and Consumption (China 2013-2020) 48
Livestock Outlook 49
Table: China - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 50
Table: China - Risks To Livestock Outlook 51
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (China 2013-2020) 55
Featured Analysis 57
Provincial Agricultural Landscape: Diverging Trends 57
Table: China - Agribusiness Production By Provinces, 2014 (% of total) 63
Table: China - Agribusiness Production Growth By Provinces (% chg between 2010 and 2014) 63
Commodities Price Analysis 65
Global Commodities Strategy 65
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 65
Upstream Analysis 67
Asia Machinery Outlook 67
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 70
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 72
Asia GM Outlook 77
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 80
Downstream Analysis 82
Food 82
Confectionery 83
Regional Overview 84
Table: Impact Of El Niño On Crops 84
Competitive Landscape 89
Table: China - Major Agribusiness Companies 89
Demographic Forecast 91
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025) 92
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025) 92
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025) 93
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025) 93
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025) 94
Methodology 96
Industry Forecast Methodology 96
Sector-Specific Methodology 97

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