China Agribusiness Industry Update Quarter 2 2012
$ 1 088
- March 2013
- by Business Monitor International
- 134
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
China's weight in the global agricultural sector is growing, with the country having an increasing role in
international production balances and prices. China will maintain a strong appetite for key commodities,
and we see particularly strong production growth potential for sugar, dairy and meat products. High demand
growth, strong government support and potential for investment and consolidation in these industries will
help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusiness sector is going through challenging
times, with the GDP slowing down, consumers' trust in food safety dwindling, food ingredients prices
rising, labour costs soaring and bank loan requirements for small sized enterprises tightening. This is best
seen in the mild pork production forecast for 2012/13, as producers reduce pig herd expansion on the back
of low profitability.
Livestock Losing To Grains
China - BMI Agribusiness Market Value By Commodity (% of total)
Note: The BMI Market Value is an addition of all domestically produced commodities' value (calculated by
multiplying the production with the international benchmark prices, converted in US$/tonne); e/f = BMI estimate/
forecast. Source: BMI.
Key Forecasts
• Soybean consumption growth to 2017: 43.8% to 102.1mn tonnes. Output expansion will be driven by
economic growth, which is leading to rising incomes and thus greater meat consumption. Growth will
also be driven by strong demand from the livestock sector (for soybean meal), and as soybean oil is the
most popular edible oil in the country.
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Business Environment 12
Industry Forecast 13
Sugar Outlook 13
Table: China Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 14
Table: China Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 17
Dairy Outlook 18
Table: China Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 20
Table: China Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 20
Table: China Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 20
Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 20
Table: China Butter Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 26
Table: China Cheese Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 26
Table: China Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 26
Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 27
Soybean Outlook 27
Table: China Soybean Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 29
Table: China Soybean Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 33
Rice Outlook 33
Table: China Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 34
Table: China Rice Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 38
Grains Outlook 40
Table: China Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 42
Table: China Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 42
Table: China Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 43
Table: China Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 49
Table: China Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 49
Table: China Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 50
Livestock Outlook 50
Table: China Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 52
Table: China Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 52
Table: China Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 52
Table: China Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 60
Table: China Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 60
Table: China Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 61
Cotton Outlook 61
Table: China Cotton Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 62
Table: China Cotton Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 65
Commodities Price Analysis 67
Monthly Grains Update 67
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 74
Monthly Softs Update 75
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 85
Table: BMI Commodity Strategy 86
Upstream Analysis 87
Asia Machinery Outlook 87
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 93
Asia GM Outlook 99
Table: Philippines Corn Estimates 103
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops 104
Downstream Analysis 105
Food 105
Food Consumption 105
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 106
Canned Food 107
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 108
Confectionery 108
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 109
Drink 110
Hot Drinks 110
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 111
Alcoholic Drinks 111
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 113
Soft Drinks 114
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 116
Mass Grocery Retail 117
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 119
Competitive Landscape 120
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies (US$mn) 120
Company Profile 121
Zhongpin Incorporated 121
Demographic Forecast 128
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 129
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 130
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 131
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 131
Methodology 132
Soybean in China
- $ 250
- Industry data
- January 2013
Yearly, From 1998 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: USDA
- Industries : Cereal Production
- Countries : China
- $ 250
- Industry data
- January 2013
Yearly, From 1999 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: USDA/BMI Calculation
- Industries : Cereal Production
- Countries : China
- $ 250
- Industry data
- January 2013
Yearly, From 1998 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: USDA/BMI Calculation
- Industries : Cereal Production
- Countries : China
Cereal Production in China
- $ 250
- Industry data
- January 2013
Yearly, From 1999 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: USDA/BMI Calculation
- Industries : Cereal Production
- Countries : China
- $ 250
- Industry data
- January 2013
Yearly, From 2002 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: China Ministry of Agriculture
- Industries : Cereal Production
- Countries : China
- $ 250
- Industry data
- January 2013
Yearly, From 1999 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: USDA/BMI Calculation
- Industries : Cereal Production
- Countries : China
- $ 250
- Industry data
- January 2013
Yearly, From 1998 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: China Ministry of Agriculture, USDA
- Industries : Cereal Production
- Countries : China
- $ 250
- Industry data
- January 2013
Yearly, From 1999 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: China Ministry of Agriculture, USDA/BMI Calculation
- Industries : Cereal Production
- Countries : China