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  5. > Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 76 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Recent developments in the country's economic and business environments add further weightto our positive view on Vietnam's agribusiness sector. The industry holds strong growth opportunities interms of production, exports and retail sales, particularly with regard to the rice, coffee, livestock and dairysectors. Moreover, economic and financial integration in South East Asia will benefit Vietnam's exports ofrice, dairy and coffee. However, Vietnam is facing growing competition in its key markets. The fulfilment ofits promising potential will only be achieved if the country steps up its competitiveness and improves bothproduct quality and supply chain efficiency. Vietnam will have to significantly ramp up investments on cropproductivity in order to not be left behind and, if it does, it will be able to produce more value-added cropsand maintain its status as an export spearhead.

Key Forecasts

- Sugar consumption growth to 2020: 23.0% to 2.4mn tonnes. Rising income, population and growingconsumption of manufactured food products will help sugar consumption grow quickly in the comingyears. Domestic production growth will not be able to keep up with consumption expansion.

-Coffee production growth to 2019/20: 13.2% to 31.6mn 60kg bags. After more than a decade of strongoutput growth, coffee production expansion will slow down in the coming years. Low coffee prices andthe attractiveness of alternative crops such as pepper will lead to a slowdown in new planted area growth.

-Milk production growth to 2019/20: 61.9% to 876,000 tonnes. Dramatic increases in cattle numbersand increased public and private sector investment - part of the effort to reduce the country's growingimport dependency - will be the main boost to growth. Commercialisation will also play a key role aslarger, more efficient farms come to play a greater role in milk production.

2016 BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD44.1bn (up from USD43.4bn in 2015; growthexpected to average 3.3% annually between 2016 and 2019).

-2016 real GDP growth: 6.6% (down from 6.7% expected in 2015; predicted to average 6.4% over2015-2020).

-2016 consumer price index: 2.1% y-o-y (up from 0.8% expected in 2015; predicted to average 4.3%over 2015-2020).

Table Of Contents

Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Grains Outlook 12
Table: Vietnam - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 13
Table: Vietnam - Risks To Grains Outlook 13
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2020) 16
Rice Outlook 17
Table: Vietnam - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook 18
Table: Vietnam - Risks To Rice Outlook 18
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2020) 21
Dairy Outlook 22
Table: Vietnam - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 23
Table: Vietnam - Risks To Dairy Outlook 23
Table: Vietnam - Planned Investment In Milk Production Capacity 25
Table: Dairy Production and Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2020) 28
Livestock Outlook 29
Table: Vietnam - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 29
Table: Vietnam - Risks To Livestock Outlook 30
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2020) 34
Coffee Outlook 35
Table: Vietnam - Coffee Production And Consumption Outlook 36
Table: Vietnam - Risks To Coffee Outlook 36
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2020) 41
Commodities Price Analysis 42
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 42
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 42
Upstream Analysis 44
Asia GM Outlook 44
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 47
Asia Machinery Outlook 49
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 52
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 55
Downstream Analysis 60
Food 60
Canned Food 61
Confectionery 62
Pasta 62
Dairy 63
Regional Overview 64
Table: Impact Of El Niño On Crops 64
Competitive Landscape 69
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies (USDmn) 69
Demographic Forecast 70
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Vietnam 1990-2025) 71
Table: Key Population Ratios (Vietnam 1990-2025) 71
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Vietnam 1990-2025) 72
Table: Population By Age Group (Vietnam 1990-2025) 72
Table: Population By Age Group % (Vietnam 1990-2025) 73
Methodology 75
Industry Forecast Methodology 75
Sector-Specific Methodology 76

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