1. Market Research
  2. > Food Market Trends
  3. > Estonia Business Forecast Report Q2 2014

Estonia Business Forecast Report Q2 2014

  • January 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 49 pages

Core Views

We believe Estonia is on a sustainable growth trajectory following
the deep recession brought on by the eurozone debt crisis, with
economic growth to average 3.3% in the next three years before
gradually settling towards long-term trend growth of 2.7%. Domestic
demand will be the main driver of growth over the medium term, as
sluggish region economic activity hinders faster export growth.
We maintain a positive view towards Estonia's fiscal trajectory, with
total public debt to remain the lowest in Europe by a comfortable
Popular support for Estonia's ruling centre-right Reform Party, in
power since 2007, has fallen significantly and is unlikely to regain
previous highs. While the main opposition Centre Party will remain
popular amongst the ethnically Russian electorate, its support base
has grown amidst criticism of the Reform Party's liberal economic
and tax policy, and now poses a threat to the Reform Party's majority
in upcoming Parliamentary elections in 2015.

Major Forecast Changes

No Major Forecast Changes

Key Risks To Outlook

As a member of the eurozone, Estonia remains exposed to any
renewed flare-up of the sovereign debt crisis.
The extreme openness of the Estonian economy, where exports
plus imports represented 184.4% of GDP in 2012, means economic
growth will remain extremely sensitive to external shocks.

Table Of Contents

Estonia Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
Executive Summary 5
Core Views 5
Major Forecast Changes 5
Key Risks To Outlook 5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings 7
Domestic Politics 8
Reform Party In Decline 8
With support for the governing centre-right Reform Party in decline, we assess the potential impact on fiscal policy and the business
environment of a potential shake-up of Estonia's ruling coalition following general elections in 2015
Table: Political Table 8
Long-Term Political Outlook 10
Few Risks To Structural Stability Over Long Term 10
Estonia is among the most structurally stable countries in emerging markets, as reflected in its very high 84 8 (out of 100) BMI long-term
political risk rating Having fully converged to all major multilateral European institutions (European Union, European Monetary Union
and Schengen Agreement),
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings 13
Economic Activity 14
Growth Outperformance To
Resume In 2014 14
Following a pronounced deceleration of headline GDP growth in 2013, we believe the Estonian economy is poised for a relatively robust
rebound in 2014, when we forecast real GDP to expand by 3 3% Although a gradual acceleration of external demand will be vital for
sustainable growth, domestic demand will remain the primary engine of the economy over the medium term
Balance Of Payments 16
Domestic Demand Growth To Keep Current Account In Deficit 16
The outperformance of domestic demand growth in Estonia relative to external demand will keep the current account in deficit over the
coming years, with the shortfall peaking at 1 9% of GDP in 2015 before gradually narrowing over the long term on the back of rising
Tab le: Leading The Pac k 17
Fiscal Policy 19
No Signs Of Fiscal Slippage 19
We maintain our constructive view of Estonia's fiscal trajectory, and expect a high degree of policy continuity to ensure deficit and debt
levels remain among the lowest in Europe over the medium to long term
Inflation Outlook 21
Inflationary Pressures Lurking In 2014 21
The recent sharp drop in headline inflation in Estonia is being driven primarily by supply-side factors, and masks demand-side pressures
stemming from strong growth in wages and real estate prices
Regional Monetary Policy 22
ECB Cut: Pushing On A String 22
A cut in the ECB's refinancing rate will do little to ease monetary policy in the eurozone, given the fractured credit transmission channel
and passive tightening resulting from banks repaying LTRO funds
Business Monitor International Ltd www businessmonitor com 3
Regional Exchange Rate Policy 24
Euro Strength Unsettling The ECB 24
Passive monetary tightening and improved investor sentiment will compound policy inertia from the ECB has keep the euro strong
heading into 2014 However, weak economic growth, high unemployment, euro strength, deflation risks, a potential LTRO-cliff
and anaemic structural reform are becoming increasingly unpalatable for policymakers As such, we expect substantial monetary
intervention in 2014
TABLE: Eurozone Currency Forecast 24
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 27
The Estonian Economy to 2023 27
Trend Growth To Average Much Less In 2017-2023 27
Trend average growth in Estonia is forecast to average 2 7% between 2017-202 3, well below the 7 6% from 2001-2007 That said, we
stress that the worst effects of the 2008-2010 recession have now passed and the economy is well positioned for sustainable long-term
TABLE: Long -Term Macroeconomic Forecasts 27
Chapter 4: Business Environment 29
SWOT Analysis 29
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings 29
Business Environment Outlook 30
Introduction 30
Institutions 30
Infrastructure 32
Market Orientation 34
Table: Top Export DESTINATIONS, 2001-2009 34
Operational Risk 35
Chapter 5: Key Sectors 37
Autos 37
Table: Passenger Car Sales Data And Forecasts 37
Table: New And Used Car Sales 37
Tab le: Commercia l Vehic le Sales Data And Forecasts 38
Food and Drink 39
Tab le: Canned Food Value /Volume Sales - Historica l Data and Forecasts , 2010-2017 40
Tab le: Food Consumption Indicators - Historica l Data and Forecasts , 2009-2017 40
Tab le: Confectionery Value /Volume Sales - Historica l Data and Forecasts , 2010-2017 41
Tab le: Pasta Volume Sales , Production and Trade - Historica l Data and Forecasts , 2010-2017 43
Other Key Sectors 45
Tab le: Freight SECTOR Key Indicators 45
Tab le: Pharma Sector Key Indicators 45
TABLE: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators 45
Tab le: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators 46
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions 47
Global Outlook 47
Momentum To Continue In H114 47
Tab le: Globa l Assumptions 47
Tab le: Deve loped States , Rea l GDP Growt H, % 48
Tab le: Emerging Mar kets , Rea l GDP Growth , % 49

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Veronica

+1 718 514 2762

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Food Preparation 2016; Market, Retailers and Consumers

Food Preparation 2016; Market, Retailers and Consumers

  • $ 8 600
  • Industry report
  • August 2016
  • by Verdict Retail

Summary Food preparation expenditure is expected to rise 1.8% in 2016. Growth in 2015 and 2016 has been predominantly volume driven, with the category benefitting from the cooking at home, healthy eating ...

Baby Food in China, Canadean Ltd

Baby Food in China, Canadean Ltd

  • $ 8 325
  • Industry report
  • June 2016
  • by Canadean Ltd

Summary The Chinese baby food market has developed strongly over the historic period, although the last two years have seen a fall in growth rates as the overall economy has slowed down. All sectors of ...

Global Food Additives Market - Segmented by Type (Preservatives, Sweeteners, Hydrocolloids, Colorants, others), Application (Dairy & Frozen, bakery, Meat products, Beverages, Confectionary, others) & Geography

Global Food Additives Market - Segmented by Type (Preservatives, Sweeteners, Hydrocolloids, Colorants, others), Application (Dairy & Frozen, bakery, Meat products, Beverages, Confectionary, others) & Geography

  • $ 7 500
  • Industry report
  • August 2016
  • by Mordor Intelligence LLP

The global population is growing at a rate of 1.14% and the increasing calorie intake per capita is leading to substantial increase in the global food production. Growing urbanization and changing lifestyles ...

Download Unlimited Documents from Trusted Public Sources

The future of the Food Industry

  • October 2016
    32 pages
  • Food  



  • Africa  


View report >

Beverage Markets in the US

  • October 2016
    19 pages
  • Sugar  



  • United States  

View report >

Global Fish And Seafood Markets - Forecast

  • October 2016
    5 pages
  • Veterinary Drug  

  • World  

View report >

Food Supply In Africa

13 hours ago


Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.