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  5. > Philippines Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Philippines Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 71 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We hold a positive view on the Philippines' agribusiness sector in the long term, given thecountry's potential for expansion into new sectors, such as palm oil. We particularly like the outlook forsugar production and believe the livestock sector will continue to show healthy growth rates. ThePhilippines' vast consumption market, along with strong government support, will foster domestic andforeign investment and favour output expansion. However, backyard farming and infrastructure problems,especially transport costs, will continue to hamper the sector's growth. These inefficiencies will becomeincreasingly crippling as South East Asia moves towards the ASEAN Economic Community, which issupposed to lead to trade and investment liberalisation in the region. Although the Philippines' governmentappears to have taken the measure of the challenge and is now supporting rice and sugar production,agriculture in the country remains uncompetitive. As such, the sector is at risk of low cost imports from itsneighbours over the medium term.

Key Forecasts

- Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 19.5% to 3.0mn tonnes. Sugar production growth will be drivenby improvements in yields. The government approved the Sugarcane Industry Development Act, which isaiming at diversifying the sugar sector towards more value-added products and will provide financing tofarmers.

- Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 16.3% to 1.0mn tonnes. Poultry production will record steadybut unspectacular growth. Growth will be driven by investment, both domestic and foreign.

- Rice production growth to 2019/20: 13.8% to 13.5mn tonnes. Production growth will be fuelled bycontinued improvements in infrastructure and yields as the government looks to attain self-sufficiencyand support output.

- Agribusiness market value: 2.6% increase to USD35.172bn in 2016, forecast to grow on average4.6% annually between 2016 and 2020.

- 2016 real GDP growth: 6.0% (up from 5.7% expected in 2015; predicted to average 5.9% over2016-2020).- 2016 consumer price inflation: 2.3% y-o-y (up from 1.4% expected in 2015; predicted to average 3.7%over 2016-2020).

Table Of Contents

Philippines Agribusiness Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Grains Outlook 12
Table: Philippines - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Philippines - Risks To Grains Outlook 13
Table: Grains Production and Consumption (Philippines 2013-2020) 15
Rice Outlook 16
Table: Philippines - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook 16
Table: Philippines - Risks To Rice Outlook 17
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (Philippines 2013-2020) 21
Sugar Outlook 22
Table: Philippines - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 22
Table: Philippines - Risks To Sugar Outlook 23
Table: Philippines - Sugar Mills Operational Data 24
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Philippines 2013-2020) 26
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Philippines 2012-2020) 26
Dairy Outlook 27
Table: Philippines - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 27
Table: Philippines - Risks To Dairy Outlook 28
Table: Dairy Production and Consumption (Philippines 2013-2020) 30
Livestock Outlook 32
Table: Philippines - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 32
Table: Philippines - Risks To Livestock Outlook 33
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (Philippines 2013-2020) 36
Commodities Price Analysis 37
Global Commodities Strategy 37
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 37
Upstream Analysis 39
Asia Machinery Outlook 39
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 42
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 44
Asia GM Outlook 49
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 52
Downstream Analysis 54
Food 54
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Philippines 2012-2019) 55
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Philippines 2012-2019) 57
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Philippines 2014-2019) 58
Regional Overview 59
Table: Impact Of El Niño On Crops 59
Competitive Landscape 64
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies 64
Demographic Forecast 65
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Philippines 1990-2025) 66
Table: Key Population Ratios (Philippines 1990-2025) 66
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Philippines 1990-2025) 67
Table: Population By Age Group (Philippines 1990-2025) 67
Table: Population By Age Group % (Philippines 1990-2025) 68
Methodology 70
Industry Forecast Methodology 70
Sector-Specific Methodology 71

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