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China Consumer Electronics Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 58 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The forecast for China's consumer electronics devices market was negatively impacted by arevision in the assessment for the CNY/USD exchange rate in the Q216 update, with our Country Risk teamnow expected more extensive depreciation. While affected headline market value figures, depreciation andwider economic uncertainty does not change our positive medium term outlook that continues to be basedon the migration of Chinese households up the income scale over the medium term. We believe this will helpto offset the slowdown in volumes that results from increased market saturation, and will provide vendorswith opportunities for selling a larger share of premium devices over the medium term, if the pitfall ofovercapacity is avoided. The core scenario continues to be positive in the Q216 update, however we dorecognise increased uncertainty and significant downside to demand were a hard landing to materialise inChina.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

- Computer Hardware Sales: USD74.7bn in 2016 to USD87.3bn in 2020, a CAGR of 4.0% in US dollarterms. Market maturity means growth will be slower than the decade to 2013, but rising incomes hasupside for vendors to focus on higher price and margin PCs in the retail market.

- AV Sales: USD28.9bn in 2016 to USD31.3bn in 2020, a CAGR of 2.0%. AV segment expected tounderperform as digital camera and mp3 demand continues to fall, but smart and Ultra-HD TV sets willprovide a more positive upgrade dynamic for the largest component of the market.

- Handset Sales: USD103.8bn in 2016 to USD115.2bn in 2020, a CAGR of 2.6%. Smartphone marketsaturation meant growth began to decelerate since 2014 but we expect handset sales to be theoutperforming segment as shift towards flagships/premium smartphones raises the average selling priceslightly 2016-2020.

Table Of Contents

China Consumer Electronics Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Latest Updates and Industry Developments 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview (China 2014-2020) 17
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 18
Industry Risk/Reward Index 18
Table: CE RRI Breakdown By Region, Q216 19
Table: Asia CE Risk/Reward Index - Q216 21
Market Overview 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Computers 22
Table: PC Sales (China 2014-2020) 22
AV Devices 28
Table: AV Sales (China 2014-2020) 28
Mobile Handsets 33
Table: Mobile Communications (China 2014-2020) 33
Industry Trends And Developments 41
Competitive Landscape 43
International Companies 43
Table: Apple 43
Table: Foxconn (Hon Hai) 44
Local Companies 45
Table: Founder Technology Group 45
Table: TCL 46
Regulatory Development 47
Demographic Forecast 49
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025) 50
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025) 50
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025) 51
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025) 51
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025) 52
Methodology 54
Industry Forecast Methodology 54
Sector-Specific Methodology 55
Sources 55
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 56
Sector-Specific Methodology 57
Table: Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Index Indicators 57
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 58

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