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Russia Information Technology Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 76 pages

BMI View: We have left our forecasts for the Russian IT market unchanged in our Q1 2016 report updateafter undertaking multiple revisions in 2015. We made multiple downgrades in 2015 to account for thetougher economic climate, international sanctions and the steep depreciation of the rouble against the USdollar. As a result of these conditions, 2014 and 2015 saw a significant contraction in dollar terms. In 2016,we believe the market will begin to grow positively in US dollar terms after two years of massivecontraction.

Sanctions impact vendors asymmetrically, for instance US vendors are most likely to suffer dueto reputational damage, with IT products and solutions increasingly seen through the lens of nationalsecurity by both the US and the Russian government. As a result, we expect Chinese server and storagevendors to capitalise on increased demand in Russia, which could also have implications for softwarevendors over the medium term. We expect growth to return in local currency terms from 2016, but with amore significant acceleration from 2017 onwards as the economic environment becomes more supportive,offering some growth potential in the latter years of our forecast. There is, however, downside risk to thisscenario owing to tense US-Russian relations, while political factors also present risks to vendors; forinstance, data localization requirements and the government's increased strategic emphasis on achievingtechnological independence.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Overall IT market Value in 2016: RUB1trn (up5.2% y-o-y)

- Hardware market Value in 2016: RUB490.8bn (up4.1% y-o-y)

- Software Market Value in 2016: RUB203bn (up 3.7% y-o-y)

- IT Services Value in 2016: RUB307.5bn (up 8% y-o-y)

Table Of Contents

Russia Information Technology Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
IT SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Table: IT Industry - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2012-2019) 18
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 19
Industry Risk/Reward Index 19
Table: Europe IT Risk/Reward Index, Q1 2016 21
Market Overview 22
Hardware 22
Software 31
Cloud Computing 37
Table: Russia Cloud Vendor Developments, 2014-2015 42
Services 43
Industry Trends And Developments 49
Regulatory Development 55
Table: IT Authorities 55
Competitive Landscape 59
International Companies 59
Table: Lenovo 59
Table: Foxconn 60
Table: Huawei Technologies 61
Local Companies 62
Table: Kaspersky Lab 62
Table: Mailru 63
Regional Overview 64
Europe 64
Demographic Forecast 67
Demographic Outlook 67
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Russia 1990-2025) 68
Table: Key Population Ratios (Russia 1990-2025) 68
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Russia 1990-2025) 69
Table: Population By Age Group (Russia 1990-2025) 69
Table: Population By Age Group % (Russia 1990-2025) 70
Methodology 72
Industry Forecast Methodology 72
Sources 74
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 74
Table: IT Risk/Reward Index Indicators 75
Table: Weighting Of Components 76

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