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Australia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 91 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

Key Forecasts

- Beef production growth to 2019/20: -9.9% to 2.3mn tonnes. The negative growth over our forecastperiod is mainly due to high base effects (production reached a record in 2013/14) and because outputwill decrease over 2015-2017 as farmers rebuild their herds. Beef production will reaccelerate beyond2018.

- Milk production growth to 2019/20: 7.4% to 10.4mn tonnes. Milk production will grow only modestlyin the coming years as the sector struggles to expand the herd, while yields are already elevated and willsee limited further growth. Meanwhile, the processing sector is very dynamic and will grow strongly inthe coming years, requiring more domestic supply.

- Poultry consumption growth to 2020: 19.3% to 1.27mn tonnes. Poultry consumption will prove to bethe strongest over the coming years, as consumers continue to choose the meat as a healthier alternativeto beef. As such, we forecast consumption per capita to rise to 50kg in 2020, compared with 39kg back in2010.

- 2016 BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD40.92bn, up from USD41.31bn in 2015; growthexpected to average 2.2% annually between 2016 and 2020.

- 2016 real GDP growth: 2.1%, down from 2.5% in 2015. Forecast to average 2.2% from 2016 to 2020.

- 2016 consumer price inflation: 1.0% y-o-y ave, down from 1.5% in 2015. Forecast to average 2.0%from 2016 to 2020.

- 2016 central bank policy rate: 1.50% eop, down from 2.00% in 2015. Forecast to average 2.30% from2016 to 2020.

Table Of Contents

Australia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Grains Outlook 12
Table: Australia - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 13
Table: Risks To Outlook 13
Table: Grains Production and Consumpton (Australia 2013-2020) 19
Sugar Outlook 20
Table: Australia - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 22
Table: Risks To Outlook 22
Table: Australia - Main FTAs Signed Or Under Negotiations 27
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Australia 2013-2020) 28
Dairy Outlook 29
Table: Australia - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 30
Table: Risks To Outlook 30
Table: Australia Dairy - Recent Company Developments 35
Table: Dairy Production and Consumption (Australia 2013-2020) 36
Livestock Outlook 38
Table: Australia - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 39
Table: Australia - Risks To Livestock Outlook 40
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (Australia, 2013-2020) 47
Commodities Price Analysis 48
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 48
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 48
Featured Analysis 50
Cotton Production To Recover Despite Weak Chinese Demand 50
Table: Cotton Production and Growth (Australia, 2012-2020) 54
TPP - Agribusiness Winners And Losers 54
Table: TPP - Main Winners And Losers For Agriculture 56
Bright Export Outlook For Australia But Growing Challenges 60
Table: Production Balance (Australia 2010-2019) 64
Upstream Analysis 65
Asia GM Outlook 65
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 68
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 70
Downstream Analysis 75
Food 75
Latest Updates 75
Structural Trends 76
Table: Food Sales (Australia 2013-2020) 77
Regional Overview 79
Table: Impact Of El Niño On Crops 79
Competitive Landscape 84
Table: Australia - Major Agribusiness Companies 84
Demographic Forecast 85
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Australia 1990-2025) 86
Table: Key Population Ratios (Australia 1990-2025) 86
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Australia 1990-2025) 87
Table: Population By Age Group (Australia 1990-2025) 87
Table: Population By Age Group % (Australia 1990-2025) 88
Methodology 90
Industry Forecast Methodology 90
Sector-Specific Methodology 91

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ref:plp2016

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