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China Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • February 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 161 pages

BMI View: We maintain our bearish outlook on China's long-term crude oil and liquids production, as lowoil prices continue to prompt the country's largest producers to cut spending and pare back high-costproduction. The outlook for gas is more positive, with greater exploitation of China's vast unconventionalspotential and introduction of several policies in favour of gas-use expected to lead an uptrend in both gasproduction and consumption through to 2025. Despite macroeconomic headwinds, China will remain asizeable consumer of energy, notably crude oil, which will be dictated by the pace of new storageconstruction over the coming quarters.

- China's crude oil and liquids output will fall by 6.1% between 2016 and 2025, as sustained oil priceweakness prompt the country's largest oil producers to pare back upstream investment and disengagefrom high-cost production activities.

Table Of Contents

China Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 9
Table: Headline Forecasts (China 2014-2020) 9
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts 9
SWOT 11
Oil and Gas SWOT 11
Industry Forecast 13
Upstream Exploration 13
Latest Updates 13
Structural Trends 13
Table: Key Offshore JVs 14
Table: Recoverable Shale Gas Estimates In China 16
Table: Major IOC Involvement In China's Shale Gas Exploration 17
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (China 2014-2019) 19
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (China 2020-2025) 19
Upstream Projects 21
Table: China - Key Upstream Projects 21
Upstream Production - Oil 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Risks To Outlook 29
Table: Oil Production (China 2014-2019) 30
Table: Oil Production (China 2020-2025) 30
Upstream Production - Gas 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Major Gas Fields 32
Growth Sources 33
Risks To Outlook 34
Table: Gas Production (China 2014-2019) 34
Table: Gas Production (China 2020-2025) 35
Refining 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends 36
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (China 2014-2019) 38
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (China 2020-2025) 38
Refined Fuels Consumption 39
Latest Updates 39
Structural Trends 39
Table: Refined Products Consumption (2014-2019) 42
Table: Refined Products Consumption (China 2020-2025) 42
Gas Consumption 43
Latest Updates 43
Structural Trends 43
Table: Gas Consumption (China 2014-2019) 45
Table: Gas Consumption (China 2020-2025) 45
Trade - Oil 46
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 46
Latest Updates 46
Structural Trends 46
Crude Oil Trade Partners 48
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (China 2014-2019) 49
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (China 2020-2025) 49
Fuels Trade Forecasts 49
Latest Updates 49
Structural Trends 49
Fuels Trade Partners 51
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (China 2014-2019) 52
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (China 2020-2025) 52
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 53
Latest Updates 53
Structural Trends 53
Table: Major LNG Supply Deals 55
Table: Gas Net Exports (China 2014-2019) 55
Table: Gas Net Exports (China 2020-2025) 56
Industry Risk Reward Index 57
Asia - Risk/Reward Index 57
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Persistent Oil Price Weakness Underpins Bearish Outlook 58
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index 58
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Projection For Weaker Economic Growth Undermines India's Scores 61
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index 61
China - Risk/Reward Index 63
China Upstream Index - Overview 63
China Upstream Index - Rewards 63
China Upstream Index - Risks 63
China Downstream Index - Overview 64
Market Overview 65
China Energy Market Overview 65
Regulatory Structure 65
Fiscal Regime 67
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators 67
Table: Offshore Production Royalty Structure 68
Table: China: Tiered Gas Pricing For Residential Users 69
Table: Shanghai: Tiered Gas Pricing System For Residential Users 69
Licensing Regime 69
Table: 2014 Offshore Blocks Open To Foreign Participation 70
Table: Winners Of Second Shale Gas Licensing Round 71
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 73
Oil Refineries 73
Table: Oil Refineries In China 73
Oil Storage 76
Table: China's Strategic Petroleum Reserves, Phase I and II 76
Table: Commercial Crude Oil Storage Terminals In China 77
Crude Oil Pipelines 78
Table: Major Oil Pipelines In China 78
LNG Terminals 78
Table: LNG Terminals In China 79
Gas Storage Terminals 80
Gas Pipelines 81
Table: Major Gas Pipelines in China 81
Coal-To-Gas Plants 82
Table: Planned CTG Plants 82
Coal-To-Gas Pipelines 82
Table: Planned CTG Pipelines 82
Competitive Landscape 83
Competitive Landscape Summary 83
Table: Key Players - Chinese Oil And Gas Sector 86
Table: Key Upstream Players 86
Table: Key Downstream Players 87
Company Profile 88
BP China 88
Chevron 91
CNOOC 94
CNPC 105
ExxonMobil China 112
Husky Energy 114
PetroChina 118
Shell (China) 125
Sinopec 130
Total 138
Other Summaries 141
Regional Overview 146
Industry Trend Analysis 146
Glossary 154
Table: Glossary Of Terms 154
Methodology 156
Industry Forecast Methodology 156
Source 158
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 158
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 160
Table: Weighting 161

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