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Malaysia Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 127 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Malaysia's long-term crude oil production will be hit as investment in deepwater explorationand production is curtailed amid low oil prices. A more competitive Asian LNG market will reduce foreigngas demand in the short term.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

- We forecast Malaysia's crude oil production to remain on a downtrend over 2016 to 2025 as weak oilprices limit the attractiveness of boosting output. Furthermore, we do not expect new final investmentdecisions in deepwater and marginal projects in the next several years given their high breakeven cost.

- We have further downgraded our oil production forecast this quarter on the back of continuously low oilprices, our downwards oil price forecast revision for the coming years and Petronas' large spending cutsfor the coming four years. We see Malaysia's oil production levels declining from an estimated 645,900b/d in 2015 to 458,600b/d in 2025

- We have upgraded our refining forecast this quarter based on the selling of Shell's Port Dickson refineryto Chinese private refiner Shandong Hengyuan Petrocheminal. The new buyer has announced plans toupgrade the refinery to meet new Euro IV and V fuel specifications. We are therefore now including thisrefinery within the entire forecast period.

- We expect refined fuels production to remain relatively stable over the coming years, rising in 2020 withthe start of the RAPID refinery, boosting refined products production from 410,700b/d in 2019 to593,200b/d by 2022.- Malaysia's oil cons

umption will grow at a slower rate over the next decade as a result of weakeningeconomic growth and falling energy intensity weighing on demand. The consumption mix will remaindominated by diesel and gasoline over our forecast period.

Table Of Contents

Malaysia Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Malaysia 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Major Discoveries In Malaysia Since 2011 15
Table: Blocks Offered In The Petronas Licensing Round 2014 17
Upstream Projects 18
Table: Malaysia Major Upstream Projects 18
Upstream Production - Oil 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Risk Sharing Contracts Awarded 30
Table: Oil Production (Malaysia 2014-2019) 31
Table: Oil Production (Malaysia 2020-2025) 31
Upstream Production - Gas 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Gas Production (Malaysia 2014-2019) 34
Table: Gas Production (Malaysia 2020-2025) 34
Refining 35
Latest Updates 35
Structural Trends 35
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Malaysia 2014-2019) 37
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Malaysia 2020-2025) 37
Refined Fuels Consumption 38
Latest Updates 38
Structural Trends 38
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Malaysia 2014-2019) 40
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Malaysia 2020-2025) 40
Gas Consumption 41
Latest Updates 41
Structural Trends 41
Table: Gas Consumption (Malaysia 2014-2019) 43
Table: Gas Consumption (Malaysia 2020-2025) 43
Trade - Oil 44
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 44
Latest Updates 44
Structural Trends 44
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Malaysia 2014-2020) 46
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Malaysia 2020-2025) 46
Fuels Trade Forecasts 46
Latest Updates 46
Structural Trends 47
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Malaysia 2014-2019) 48
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Malaysia 2020-2025) 48
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 49
Latest Updates 49
Structural Trends 49
Table: Gas Net Exports (Malaysia 2014-2019) 52
Table: Gas Net Exports (Malaysia 2020-2025) 52
Industry Risk Reward Index 53
Asia - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 53
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Persistent Oil Price Weakness Underpins Bearish Outlook 54
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index 54
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Projection For Weaker Economic Growth Undermines India's Scores 57
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index 57
Malaysia Risk/Reward Index 59
Malaysia Upstream Index - Overview 59
Malaysia Upstream Index - Rewards 59
Malaysia Upstream Index - Risks 59
Malaysia Downstream Index - Overview 60
Market Overview 61
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 61
Oil Refineries 61
Table: Refineries In Malaysia 61
Existing Refineries 62
Planned Refineries 63
Proposed Refineries 64
Oil Storage Facilities 65
Table: Oil Storage Facilities In Malaysia 65
Oil Terminals/Ports 67
Oil Pipelines 68
LNG Liquefaction Terminals 69
Table: Malaysia LNG Liquefaction Terminals 69
LNG Import Terminals 70
Table: Malaysia LNG Regasification Facilities 70
Gas Pipelines 71
Malaysia Energy Market Overview 72
Regulatory Structure 72
Fiscal Regime 74
Table: Malaysia - Upstream Tax Regime 74
Licensing Regime 74
Table: Malaysia - Contracts and Licensing Regime 74
Competitive Landscape 76
Table: Key Players - Malaysian Energy Sector 77
Company Profile 78
ConocoPhillips 78
ExxonMobil 82
Murphy Oil 86
Petronas 90
Shell 101
Other Summaries 107
Regional Overview 112
Industry Trend Analysis 112
Glossary 120
Table: Glossary Of Terms 120
Methodology 122
Industry Forecast Methodology 122
Source 124
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 124
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 126
Table: Weighting 127

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