Pakistan Oil and Gas Industry Update Quarter 2 2012

  • February 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 119 pages



BMI View: It will not be possible for Pakistan to maintain gas self-sufficiency much longer – primarily
due to rising domestic consumption, which could climb higher as more power projects come online. As
gas import volumes rise, LNG is set to become part of the energy mix. In the meantime, Pakistan will
again attempt to privatise more of its various state-controlled energy industry players and stimulate investment
in domestic oil and gas production.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Pakistan’s Oil and Gas segment are:
.. Oil and natural gas liquids (NGL) volumes in 2011 will have been an estimated 67,200 barrels
per day (b/d), with limited scope for expansion over the medium term. The recent upturn in
exploration and development activity may be sufficient to boost near-term production to
nearly 69,000b/d in 2012.

.. The government has a deal with Eni to cooperate on oil and gas development projects. The
Italian industry player will provide expertise and technology exclusively to its Pakistani state partners
in return for access to fields that have been under national control. Eni said the agreement would
help it double its production in Pakistan over the next five to six years.

.. Oil demand is currently running at an estimated 420,000b/d, with 2011 imports thought to have
been 353,000b/d. With oil consumption expected to reach almost 462,000b/d by 2016, and
modest growth in domestic liquids production, we see oil imports reaching about 409,000b/d
by 2016.

.. Pakistan produces around 40bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas per year, all of which is consumed
domestically. Demand is expected to rise substantially over the next few years, according to the
country’s oil and gas ministry. Pakistan also plans to promote the use of gas in future power
generation projects, which does mean there will be rising dependency on the fuel. The
government has decided to import 500mn cubic feet of LNG per day (5.2bcm per year )
from Qatar to cope with an energy crisis.

.. Development of new natural gas fields is proceeding, with the government expecting recently
discovered fields to add about 10bcm to Pakistan’s annual gas production. A number of
discoveries point to reasonable medium-term growth potential. Our projections see gas production
reaching 42bcm by 2014/15, then continuing to rise steadily beyond this point. If demand rises
in line with our projections, gas imports of almost 5bcm will be necessary by 2016.

.. Crude oil import costs in 2011 are estimated to have been US Dollar 13.86bn, rising to possible
US Dollar 13.91bn by 2016. By the end of the projection period, Pakistan could also be importing
4.7bcm of gas at a cost of US Dollar 2.20bn, but might be exporting refined products if refinery
expansion plans are realised.

At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US Dollar 99.38/bbl, falling to
US Dollar 97.23/bbl in 2013. Global Gross Domestic Product in 2012 is projection at 3.2%, up from an assumed 3.1% in 2011,
reflecting a faltering recovery in the US and an uncertain eurozone debt situation. For 2013, growth is
estimated at 3.7%.

Table Of Contents

BMI Market View .. 5
Industry SWOT Analysis . 7
Pakistan Oil and Gas SWOT . 7
World Energy Industry Outlook 8
Libya Production Update: Main Fields (As Of Jan 9) . 9
World Oil Consumption, from 2009 to 2016 (000b/d) .. 12
World Oil Production, from 2009 to 2016 (000b/d) .. 13
Regional Energy Industry Outlook 14
Pakistan Energy Industry Overview . 17

Market Projection Scenario 18
Data : Pakistan Oil and Gas - Historical Data and Projections, from 2008 to 2015 .. 18
Data : Pakistan Oil and Gas - Historical Data and Projections, 2016-2021 .. 19
Oil And Gas Reserves 21
Oil Supply And Demand 21
Gas Supply And Demand . 22
LNG 23
Refining And Oil Products Trade . 23
Revenues/Import Costs . 24

Key Risks To BMI’s Projection Scenario . 24
Oil And Gas Infrastructure . 25
Oil Refineries 25
Data : Refineries In Pakistan . 25
Oil Storage Facilities . 26
Oil Terminals/Ports 26
Oil Pipelines .. 26
LNG Terminals . 26
Gas Storage Facilities .. 26
Gas Pipelines . 27
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings .. 30
Upstream Risk / Reward Ratings . 34
Data ; Downstream Risk / Reward Ratings. 35
Pakistan Upstream Rating - Overview . 36
Pakistan Upstream Rating - Rewards 36
Pakistan Upstream Rating - Risks .. 36
Pakistan Downstream Rating - Overview 36

Competition Overview 37
Executive Summary 37
Data :

Key Players - Pakistan Oil And Gas Segment 38
Overview/State Role .. 39
Licensing And Regulation 39
Government Policy . 39
Licensing Rounds . 40
Data : Key Upstream Players 42
Data : Key Downstream Players . 42
Company Monitor . 43
Oil and Gas Development Firms Ltd (OGDCL) .. 43
Pakistan Petroleum Ltd (PPL) . 46
Pakistan State Oil (PSO). 49
Pakistan Oilfields Ltd .. 51
Shell Pakistan .. 53
United Energy Group - Summary 55
Petroleum Exploration Ltd (PEL) - Summary .. 55
Byco Petroleum Pakistan - Summary 55
Mari Gas Firms - Summary 56
Chevron - Summary 56
Eni - Summary .. 56
Premier Oil - Summary 57
National Refinery Ltd - Summary 58
Pakistan Refinery Ltd - Summary 58
OMV - Summary.. 58
MOL - Summary .. 59
Asia - Regional Appendix .. 60
Data : Oil Consumption, from 2009 to 2016 (000b/d) .. 60
Data : Oil Consumption Long-Term Projections . 2014-2021 (000b/d) 61
Data : Oil Production, from 2009 to 2016 (000b/d) .. 62
Data : Oil Production Long-Term projections, 2014-2021 (000b/d) .. 63
Data : Refining Capacity, from 2009 to 2016 (000b/d) . 64
Data : Refining Capacity Long-Term Projections, 2014-2021 (000b/d) .. 65
Data : Gas Production, from 2009 to 2016 (bcm) 66
Data : Gas Production Long-Term projections, 2014-2021 (bcm) .. 67
Data : Gas Consumption, from 2009 to 2016 (bcm) .. 68
Data : Gas Consumption Long-Term projections, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 69
Data : Gas Imports, from 2009 to 2016 (bcm) .. 70
Data : LNG Exports, from 2009 to 2016 (bcm) . 70
Methodology And Risks To Projections 71
Glossary Of Terms .. 72
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 74
Ratings Overview 74
Data : BMI’s Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure . 75
Indicators 75
Data : BMI’s Oil and Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology .. 75
Data : BMI’s Oil and Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology . 76
BMI Methodology . 78
How We Generate Our Market Projections 78
Energy Market .. 78
Cross checks . 79
Sources 79

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