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Taiwan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 71 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Despite a lower oil price environment, rising energy efficiency and import constraints willprevent weaker prices from increasing oil and gas consumption. We also note Taiwan's shares in theregional refined fuels exports market will come under growing competition from refining capacityexpansions in the region's emerging economies, which will moderate their need for imports in themedium to long term.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

- As of January 1 2016, Taiwan's state-owned CPC Corporation officially closed its Kaohsiung oilrefinery. This has reduced the country's overall crude oil refining capacity by 16.8% to 1.1mn b/d.

- Taiwan's refined fuels consumption will remain weak over the next two years, contracting by 1.5% from937,170b/d in 2016 to 923,160b/d in 2018. This will be the result of subdued economic performance, asharp slowdown in car sales growth and rising fuel efficiency among the country's vehicle fleet.

- According to Platts reports in late 2015, Taiwan's private refiner Formosa Petrochemical Corporationplans to double 10ppm sulfur gasoil exports to Philippines from 2016, as the country switches to Euro 4-compliant standards.

-The decline in Taiwan's refining capacity is expected to lower net crude oil imports by 5% (year-on-year)to 935,050b/d in 2016. We expect the net imports of crude to continue declining across our forecastperiod to around 901,000b/d in 2025.

-We hold our previous forecast that Taiwan to become a small net refined products importer in2016. However, the imports of refined products will remain small, rising to 8,590b/d in 2025.

-We estimate that Taiwan imported 16.7bcm of gas in 2015 and forecast the imports to remain stable in2016 and 2017. The expansion of the LNG import capacity in 2018 and 2022 will lift the country's gasimport volumes to 19.9bcm by 2025.

Table Of Contents

Taiwan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Taiwan 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Oil and Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Upstream Exploration 9
Latest Updates 9
Structural Trends 9
Upstream Production - Oil 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Oil Production (Taiwan 2014-2019) 12
Table: Oil Production (Taiwan 2020-2025) 12
Upstream Production - Gas 13
Latest Updates 13
Structural Trends 13
Table: Gas Production (Taiwan 2014-2019) 14
Table: Gas Production (Taiwan 2020-2025) 14
Refining 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Taiwan 2014-2019) 17
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Taiwan 2020-2025) 17
Refined Fuels Consumption 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Taiwan 2014-2019) 20
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Taiwan 2020-2025) 20
Gas Consumption 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Gas Consumption (Taiwan 2014-2019) 22
Table: Gas Consumption (Taiwan 2020-2025) 23
Trade - Oil 24
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Taiwan 2014-2020) 26
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Taiwan 2020-2025) 26
Fuels Trade Forecast 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Taiwan 2014-2019) 27
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Taiwan 2020-2025) 28
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Gas Net Exports (Taiwan 2014-2019) 31
Table: Gas Net Exports (Taiwan 2020-2025) 31
Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 32
Asia - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 32
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Persistent Oil Price Weakness Underpins Bearish Outlook 33
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index 33
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Projection For Weaker Economic Growth Undermines India's Scores 36
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index 36
Taiwan - Risk/Reward Index 38
Taiwan Upstream Index - Overview 38
Taiwan Upstream Index - Rewards 38
Taiwan Upstream Index - Risks 38
Taiwan Downstream Index - Overview 39
Market Overview 40
Taiwan Energy Market Overview 40
Regulatory Structure 40
Fiscal Regime 41
Table: Taiwan - Key Tax Rates 41
Licensing Regime 41
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 43
Oil Refineries 43
Table: Operational Refineries In Taiwan 43
Service Stations 43
Oil Storage 43
LNG Terminals 44
Table: Operating LNG Terminals In Taiwan 44
Gas Pipelines 44
Competitive Landscape 45
Competitive Landscape Summary 45
Table: Key Players - Taiwan Oil and Gas Sector 46
Table: Key Upstream Player 46
Table: Key Downstream Players 46
Company Profile 47
Chinese Petroleum Corporation (CPC) 47
Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 52
Other Summaries 55
Regional Overview 56
Industry Trend Analysis 56
Glossary 64
Table: Glossary Of Terms 64
Methodology 66
Industry Forecast Methodology 66
Source 68
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 68
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 70
Table: Weighting 71

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