INTRODUCTION
1. KEY ISSUES
2. METHODOLOGY
3. COMPARISON WITH OTHER CONSULTANTS
1. PART 1: THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET IN 2010
1. 1995 - 2010 RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET
o WORLDWIDE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY SALES BY CHEMISTRY, UNITS (M CELLS), 1995 - 2010
o WORLDWIDE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET BY CHEMISTRY, M$, 1995-2010
2. NICD, NIMH, LI-ION AND LITHIUM POLYMER MAIN CHARACTERISTICS
o NICD, NIMH, LI-ION MAIN CHARACTERISTICS
o NICD, NIMH & LI-ION PRODUCT PERFORMANCES : WH/KG & WH/L
o ADVANTAGES OF EACH BATTERY TECHNOLOGY
3. BATTERY SUPPLIERS’ MARKET SHARES IN 2010
o JAPANESE, CHINESE & KOREAN MARKET SHARE, IN VALUE, 2010
o MARKET SHARE IN VALUE & GROWTH 2009/2010 FOR JAPAN, CHINA & KOREAN BATTERY INDUSTRY
o NICD BATTERY: MARKET SHARE IN 2010 IN VOLUME & VALUE WORLDWIDE
o NIMH BATTERY: MARKET SHARE IN 2010 IN VOLUME & VALUE WORLDWIDE
o LI-ION & POLYMER BATTERY: MARKET SHARE IN 2010 IN VOLUME & VALUE WORLDWIDE
o LI-ION CYLINDRICAL: MARKET SHARE IN 2010 IN VOLUME & VALUE WORLDWIDE
o LI-ION PRISMATIC & POL: MARKET SHARE IN 2010 IN VOLUME & VALUE WORLDWIDE
o MARKET SHARE IN VALUE, GROWTH 2009-2010 & MARKET VALUE FOR NICD, NIMH & LI-ION BUSINESS
o MAJOR LI-ION MANUFACTURERS QUARTERLY PRODUCTION 2001-2010: SONY, SANYO, MBI, SANYO GS, NEC, MAXELL, BYD, LG CHEM, SDI, LISHEN
o MAJOR LI—ION MANUFACTURERS QUARTERLY PRODUCTION 2001-2010: SONY, SANYO, MBI, SANYO GS, NEC, MAXELL, BYD, LG CHEM, SDI, LISHEN
o LI—ION MANUFACTURERS YEARLY PRODUCTION (M CELLS / YEAR) FOR LI-ION CYLINDRICAL, LI-ION PRISMATIC & LITHIUM POLYMER: SONY, SANYO, MBI, SANYO GS, NEC, MAXELL, BYD, LG CHEM, SDI, LISHEN & OTHERS
o BATTERY MAKERS: 2010 SALES IN M CELLS BY CHEMISTRY: : SONY, SANYO, MBI, SANYO GS, NEC, MAXELL, BYD, LG CHEM, SDI, LISHEN, YUAZA DELTA, GOLD PEAK,
o BATTERY MAKERS: 2010 SALES IN M $ BY CHEMISTRY: : SONY, SANYO, MBI, SANYO GS, NEC, MAXELL, BYD, LG CHEM, SDI, LISHEN, YUAZA DELTA, GOLD PEAK,
o BATTERY INDUSTRY IN 2010: NICD, NIMH & LI-ION COMPETITORS MARKET SHARE IN VALUE
o FOCUS ON THE LEADERS’ STRATEGY
AVICENNE ENERGY – Ph. :+33 1 47 78 46 00 – c.pillot@avicenne.com 2 MARCH 2011
o SANYO IN 2010
- RANK, MAIN CUSTOMERS, INVESTMENT,
- FACTORIES LOCATION
- LI-ION CELLS PRODUCTION CAPACITY, 2004 Q4 – 2010 Q4 (M CELLS PER MONTH)
o CHINESE & KOREAN MAKERS
o CHINESE MAKERS STRENGTHS
o CHINESE MAKERS WEAKNESSES
o CHINESE BATTERY MARKETS: CELLULAR PHONES, POWER TOOLS
o EXAMPLE OF LISHEN
- AUTOMATIC LINE
- PRODUCTION CAPACITY BY CELL SIZE IN 2010
o CHINA IN THE WORLDWIDE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY PRODUCTION
- CHINA MARKET SHARE IN VOLUME FOR NICD IN 2010
- CHINA MARKET SHARE IN VOLUME FOR NIMH IN 2010
- CHINA MARKET SHARE IN VOLUME FOR LI-ION IN 2010
- CHINA MARKET SHARE FOR BATTERIES IN VALUE IN 2010
4. MAIN APPLICATIONS IN 2010
o KEY MARKETS FOR NICD IN 2010: POWER TOOLS, RC/CARS & TOYS, HOUSEHOLD DEVICES, SECURITY LIGHTING, E-BIKES VALUE (M$)
o KEY MARKETS FOR NIMH FROM 2001 TO 2010: WEIGHT OF CELLULAR PHONES & OTHER APPLICATIONS
o NIMH BATTERY MAIN APPLICATION IN 2009 & 2010 IN VALUE: HEV, RETAIL, POWER TOOLS, CORDLESS PHONES,
o LI-ION & POLYMER BATTERY SALES BY APPLICATION, IN VOLUME (M CELLS), WORLDWIDE, 2000-2010: CELLULAR PHONES, PORTABLE PCS, CAMCORDERS, DIGITAL CAMERAS, POWER TOOLS, MP3, VIDEO GAMES,
o LI-ION & POLYMER BATTERY SALES BY APPLICATION, IN VALUE (M $), WORLDWIDE, 2000-2010: CELLULAR PHONES, PORTABLE PCS, CAMCORDERS, DIGITAL CAMERAS, POWER TOOLS, MP3, VIDEO GAMES,
1. PART 2: TECHNICAL, ECONOMICAL & REGULATION TRENDS
1. RAW MATERIALS TRENDS
o RAW MATERIALS IN THE BATTERY BUSINESS
- PRODUCTION COST FOR JAPANESE, CHINESE & KOREAN MAKERS FOR 543450 CELL IN Q4-2010
- PROFIT LEVEL COMPARE TO COBALT PRICE ON A QUARTERLY BASIS FROM 2009 TO 2010
- COBALT & NICKEL PRICE IN $/KG FROM 2003 TO 2010
- NIMH BATTERY PERFORMANCES (CAPACITY IN MAH) 1998-2010
- LI-ION BATTERY PERFORMANCES (ENERGY DENSITY IN WH/L & WH/KG) 1994-2010
- MAIN BATTERY MAKERS (SANYO, SONY, MBI, SDI & LG) ROADMAP 2009-2010-2010 FOR THEIR HIGH CAPACITY CYLINDRICAL LI-ION PRODUCTS
o CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL FOR LI-ION
- EXAMPLES OF NEW LI-ION CELLS PRODUCED IN 2010, CATHODE & ANODE CHARACTERISTICS
- MAJOR AXES OF DEVELOPMENT FOR NEW CATHODES: LiMn2O4, LiFePO3, Li[NixMnyCoz]O2, Li[NixCozMnAl]O2 (NCA-NCM)
- SPECIFIC CAPACITY (MAH/G) & DISCHARGE VOLTAGE FOR DIFFERENT CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL
- LICOO2, LiMn2O4, LiFePO3, Li[NixMnyCoz]O2, Li[NixCozMnAl]O2 (NCA-NCM) MAIN CHARACTERISTICS
- COBALT NEEDS (TONS) FOR NICD, NIMH & LI-ION BATTERIES
- COBALT DEMAND WORLDWIDE (TONS) 2000-2010,
- COBALT DEMAND WORLDWIDE (TONS) 2000-2010, BY APPLICATION
- COBALT CONSUMPTION IN 2009 & 2010 BY APPLICATION: BATTERIES, SUPPER ALLOYS, CHEMICAL, PIGMENTS, DIAMOND TOOLS, HARD METAL, MAGNETS,
- NICKEL CONSUMPTION IN 2010 BY APPLICATION: INDUSTRIALS, TRANSPORT, COMMERCIAL, BATTERIES,
- CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL NEEDS FOR CYLINDRICAL & PRISMATIC LI-ION BATTERIES, TONS, 2000-2010,
- CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL NEEDS, TONS, 2000-2010, FOR LICOO2, LiMn2O4, LiFePO3, Li[NixMnyCoz]O2, Li[NixCozMnAl]O2 (NCA-NCM)
- CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL NEEDS (% & TONS) FOR EACH BATTERY MAKERS: SANYO, SONY, MBI, SDI, LGC, LISHEN, SGS, NEC, MAXELL, E-ONE
- CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL SUPPLIERS MARKET SHARE: A123, BYD, CHEMETAL, FMC LITHIUM, MATSUSHITA, MITSUI MINING, MITSUI ZOZEN, NICHIA CORP, NIKKI CHEMICAL, NIPPON CHEMICAL, NIPPON DENKO, PHOSTECH/SUD-CHEMIE, SEIDO CHEM, SEIMI CHEMICAL, SONY (MIYAGI), SUMITOMO METAL MINING, TANAKA CHEM, TODA KOGYO CORP, TORONOX, UMICORE KOREA
a. LICOO2 SUPPLIERS & THEIR CUSTOMERS
b. LiMn2O4 SUPPLIERS & THEIR CUSTOMERS
c. NMC SUPPLIERS & THEIR CUSTOMERS
d. NCA/NCM SUPPLIERS & THEIR CUSTOMERS
e. LIMPO4 SUPPLIERS & THEIR CUSTOMERS
- CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL NEEDS FOR CYLINDRICAL & PRISMATIC LI-ION BATTERIES, TONS, 2000-2020,
- COBALT NEEDS FOR LI-ION CELLS, IN TONS, 2000-2020
o ANODE ACTIVE MATERIAL FOR LI-ION
- ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS SUPPLIERS FOR EACH BATTERY MAKER: HITACHI CHEMICAL, JFE CHEMICAL, KANSAI NETSU KAGAKU, MITSUBISHI CHEMICAL, MITSUI MINING, NIPPON CARBON, OSAKA GAS CHEMICAL, OTHERS, SHANSHAN TECH, SHENZHEN BTR, SUMITOMO METAL
- ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS SUPPLIERS MARKET SHARE, IN VOLUME
- ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS SPECIFIC CAPACITY & DISCHARGE VOLTAGE
- ANODE DEVELOPMENTS FOR SANYO, SONY, MBI, SDI, LG
o SEPARATORS
- SEPARATOR MARKET (M M²) 1995-2010
- MAIN SUPPLIERS STRENGHT: TONEN, CELGARD, ASAHI,
- SEPARATOR MAKERS & THEIR CUSTOMERS: TONEN, CELGARD, ASAHI, UBE, SUMITOMO, SK, ENTEK
- SEPARATOR SUPPLIERS MARKET SHARE IN VOLUME
o ELECTROLYTE
- ELECTROLYTE MARKET IN VOLUME (TONS / YEARS) 1995-2010
- ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS MARKET SHARE IN VOLUME (2003-2010): UBE, KIEL, MITSUBISHI CHEMICAL, TOMIYAMA, ZHANGJIAGANG GUOTAI RONGHUA, BYD,
- ELECTROLYTE MAKERS & THEIR CUSTOMERS
- LIPF6 SUPPLIERS & THEIR CUSTOMER
- LIPF6 MARKET (TONS) 1999-2010
o DEVELOPMENTS IN NANOSTRUCTURE MATERIALS
2. BATTERY SIZE & CAPACITY TRENDS
o 18650 CELLS BY CAPACITY IN 2009 & 2010
o CYLINDRICAL LI-ION CELL SIZE IN 2010
o 18650 CELLS CAPACITY 1Q2004-4Q 2010
o RATIO OF LI-ION CYLINDRICAL & PRISMATIC IN VOLUME (1997-2010)
o RATIO OF LI-ION CYLINDRICAL & PRISMATIC IN VAMUE (1997-2010)
o POLYMER BATTERY FOCUS
- STRENGTH & WEAKNESSES
- LI-POLYMER PRODUCTS
- LI-POLYMER CELLS DEMAND IN VOLUME (1998-2020)
- LI-POLYMER CELLS DEMAND IN VALUE (1998-2020)
- LI-POLYMER CELLS DEMAND, IN VOLUME (M CELLS) 1998-2020, BY APPLICATION: CELLULAR, PORTABLE PCS, PDA, VIDEO GAMES, MP3, OTHERS
- LI-POLYMER CELLS DEMAND, IN VALUE (M $) 1998-2020, BY APPLICATION: CELLULAR, PORTABLE PCS, PDA, VIDEO GAMES, MP3, OTHERS
3. SUBSTITUTION TECHNOLOGY: MICRO FUEL CELLS TRENDS
o FUEL CELLS PRINCIPE & THEORY
- PRINCIPE
- MAIN TYPES OF SMALL & MICRO FUEL CELLS
o SMALL & MICRO FUEL CELLS & BATTERY COMPARISON
- STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES COMPARE TO BATTERIES
- MAIN TYPES OF SMALL & MICRO FUEL CELLS
- ENERGY DENSITY OF BATTERIES & FUEL
- SMALL & MICRO FUEL CELS LAUNCH DELATED
o SMALL & MICRO FUEL CELLS MAIN ACTORS
- BIG COMPANIES
- START-UP
- RAW MATERIALS SUPPLIERS
- R&D
- MAIN TYPES OF SMALL & MICRO FUEL CELLS
- ENERGY DENSITY OF BATTERIES & FUEL
o SMALL & MICRO FUEL CELLS MARKET FORECASTS UP TO 2010
- SCENARIOS FOR SMALL FUEL CELLS MARKET IN 2010
- MICRO FUEL CELLS: A NICHE MARKET BY 2010
- WHAT ABOUT CARTRIDGE MARKET ?
o CONCLUSIONS ON SMALL & MICRO FUEL CELLS
4. ECONOMICAL TRENDS
o CELLS’ AVERAGE PRICE IN 2010
- NICD, NIMH, LI-ION & LI-POLYMER AVERAGE CELLS PRICE IN 2010 ($)
- NICD, NIMH, LI-ION CYLINDRICAL, LI-ION PRISMATIC & LI-POLYMER AVERAGE ENERGY PRICE IN 2010 ($/WH)
- AVERAGE PRICE PER CELL BY CHEMISTRY 2000-2010: NICD, NIMH, LI-ION, LI-POLYMER
- DETAIL OF NICD & NIMH PRICES PER SIZE IN 2010
a. NICD: AAA, AA, C, SUB C, D & F SIZE
b. NIMH: AAA, AA, C, SUB C, D
- AVERAGE PRICE PER CELL BY CHEMISTRY 2000-2010: NICD, NIMH, LI-ION, LI-POLYMER ($/WH)
- LI-ION 18650 PRICE DECREASE 1996-2010
- LI-ION PRICE DECREASE 1996-2010
- LI-ION CYLINDRICAL PRICE DECREASE 1996-2010
- LI-ION PRISMATIC PRICE DECREASE 1996-2010
- LI-ION POLYMER PRICE DECREASE 1996-2010
- 18650 CELLS PRICE BY CAPACITY 1Q 2004 – 4Q 2010
- PRISMATIC CELLS PRICE BY SIZE 1Q 2004 – 4Q 2010
- PRISMATIC PRICES & PRODUCTION COST (MATERIAL, DEPRECIATION, R&D, LABOR, SGA, OPERATING PROFIT) FOR JAPANESE, KOREAN & CHINESE MAKERS
- OPERATING PROFIT / REVENUES RATIO FOR MAIN LI-ION SUPPLIERS 2002 - 2010: SANYO, SONY, MBI, SDI, LG, BYD, SGS, NEC, MAXELL
5. REGULATION TRENDS
o BASIC CHEMICAL COMPOSITION OF PRIMARY & RECHARGEABLE BATTERIES
o NICD REGULATION
- TWO OPPOSING STANDS ON REGULATION
- EUROPEAN COMMUNITY (DG XI)
- EPBA: EUROPEAN PORTABLE BATTERY ASSOCIATION
- NEW BATTERY DIRECTIVE MAIN IMPACTS ON BATTERIES BUSINESS
- POSITIVE ASPECTS
- NEGATIVE IMPACTS
o THE ROHS & WEEE DIRECTIVES
o THE NEW CHEMICALS POLICY « REACH »
o FUTURE BATTERY REGULATION IN EUROPE
6. SAFETY ISSUES
o SONY’S LI-ION BATTERY FAILURE
- NUMBER OF PACK INVOLVED, BY PC MAKERS
- MAJOR BRAND INVOLVED
- REASON OF THE FAILURE
- COST FOR SONY IN M$
- IMPACT ON OPERATIONAL PROFIT OF SONY GROUP
- REAL ESTIMATED COST FOR SONY IN M$ BY DIFFERENT SOURCES: SONY, GOLDMAN & SACHS, REUTERS, AVICENNE DEVELOPPEMENT
- SONY: NUMBER OF CELLS SOLD 2003-2010 WORLDWIDE
- SONY: NUMBVER OF CELLS SOLD 2003-2010 FOR PORTABLE PCS WORLDWIDE
o SONY’S FAILURE IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS
- SONY MAIN CUSTOMERS IN 2010
- NUMBER OF CELLS BOUGHT BY PC MAKERS TO SONY IN 2009 & IN 2010
- DELL & TOSHIBA BATTERY SUPPLIERS IN 2009 & 2010
o LI-ION SAFETY ISSUES
- MAIN ISSUES FOR LI-ION
- INCIDENT WORLDWIDE 2000-2010
- NEW INCIDENTS IN 2010
o MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS WORLDWIDE
- THE IEEE STANDARDS ASSOCIATION
- NEW CATHODE
- ELECTROLYTE
- NEW PRODUCT FROM MBI
2. PART 3: FORECASTS UNTIL 2010 & 2020
1. PARAMETERS ANALYSIS (DETAIL IN THE FULL REPORT)
o MAIN SEGMENT TRENDS: PORTABLE PCS, CELLULAR, …
o POWER NEED TRENDS (VOLUME, WEIGHT, CAPACITY, RUNNING TIME)
o PENETRATION RATE FOR EACH CHEMISTRY
o 2010 & 2020 FORECASTS
o BATTERY MAKER, PC MAKER AND CELLULAR MAKER STRATEGIES AND POSITIONS
2. MARKET AND COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT (DETAIL IN THE FULL REPORT)
o CELLULAR PHONES,
- CELLULAR PHONES SHIPMENT, M UNITS, 1995-2010
- CELLULAR PHONES BATTERY PACK BY CHEMISTRY, % IN VOLUME, 1995-2010
o PORTABLE PCS,
- PORTABLE PCS SHIPMENT, M UNITS, 1995-2010
- PORTABLE PCS BATTERY PACK BY CHEMISTRY, % IN VOLUME, 1995-2010
o CAMCORDERS
- CAMCORDERS SHIPMENT, M UNITS, 1998-2010
- ANALOG CAMCORDER BATTERY PACK BY CHEMISTRY, % IN VOLUME, 1998-2010
- DIGITAL CAMCORDER BATTERY PACK BY CHEMISTRY, % IN VOLUME, 1998-2010
o POWER TOOLS
- POWER TOOLS SHIPMENT, M UNITS, 1998-2010
- POWER TOOLS BATTERY PACK BY CHEMISTRY, % IN VOLUME, 1998-2010
o DIGITAL CAMERA
- DIGITAL CAMERA SHIPMENT, M UNITS, 1998-2010
- DIGITAL CAMERA BATTERY PACK BY CHEMISTRY, % IN VOLUME, 1998-2010
o VIDEO GAMES
- GAMES SHIPMENT, M UNITS, 2000-2010
- GAMES BATTERY PACK BY CHEMISTRY, % IN VOLUME, 2000-2010
o MP3 PLAYERS & PORTABLE HDD
- MP3 SHIPMENT, M UNITS, 2000-2010
- MP3 BATTERY PACK BY CHEMISTRY, % IN VOLUME, 2000-2010
o TOYS & RC CARS
- RC CARS & TOYS SHIPMENT, M UNITS, 1999-2010
- RC CARS & TOYS BATTERY PACK BY CHEMISTRY, % IN VOLUME, 1999-2010
o CORDLESS PHONES
- CORDLESS PHONES SHIPMENT, M UNITS, 1998-2010
- CORDLESS PHONES BATTERY PACK BY CHEMISTRY, % IN VOLUME, 1998-2010
o PDA
- PDA SHIPMENT, M UNITS, 1998-2010
- PDA BATTERY PACK BY CHEMISTRY, % IN VOLUME, 1998-2010
o HOUSEHOLD DEVICES
- BATTERY SOLD FOR HOUSEHOLD DEVICES, M CELLS, 2000-2010 BY CHEMISTRY
o E-BIKES
- E-BIKES SHIPMENT, M UNITS, 1997-2010
- E-BIKES BATTERY PACK BY CHEMISTRY, % IN VOLUME, 1998-2010
o AUTOMOTIVE
- HEV SHIPMENT, ‘ 000 UNITS, 2002-2020
- HEV BATTERY PACK BY CHEMISTRY, % IN VOLUME, 2002-2010
- HEV BATTERY MARKET IN M$, 2000-2020
- P-HEV MARKET, ‘000 UNITS, 2010-2020
- P-HEV BATTERY MARKET IN M$, 2000-2020
- EV MARKETY, ‘000 UNITS, 2010-2020
- EV BATTERY MARKET IN M$, 2000-2020
3. FORECASTS UP TO 2010 & 2020
o WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET IN VOLUME (M CELLS) BY CHEMISTRY: NICD, NIMH, LI-ION & LI-POLYMER (1995 - 2020)
o WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET IN VALUE (M$) BY CHEMISTRY: NICD, NIMH, LI-ION & LI-POLYMER (1990 - 2020)
o BATTERY MARKET BY APPLICATION (CELLULAR PHONES, PORTABLE PCS, POWER TOOLS, AUTOMOTIVE) & CHEMISTRY IN VOLUME FOR 2000, 2006, 2010 & 2020
o BATTERY MARKET BY APPLICATION (CAMCORDERS, DSC, GAMES, MP3, PDA) & CHEMISTRY IN VOLUME FOR 2000, 2006, 2010 & 2020
o BATTERY MARKET BY APPLICATION (HOUSEHOLD, SECURITY, RC CAR & TOYS, E-BIKES, CORDLESS PHONES) & CHEMISTRY IN VOLUME FOR 2000, 2006, 2010 & 2020
o BATTERY MARKET BY APPLICATION (CELLULAR PHONES, PORTABLE PCS, POWER TOOLS, AUTOMOTIVE) & CHEMISTRY IN VALUE (M$) FOR 2000, 2006, 2010 & 2020
o BATTERY MARKET BY APPLICATION (CAMCORDERS, DSC, GAMES, MP3, PDA) & CHEMISTRY IN VALUE (M$) FOR 2000, 2006, 2010 & 2020
o BATTERY MARKET BY APPLICATION (HOUSEHOLD, SECURITY, RC CAR & TOYS, E-BIKES, CORDLESS PHONES) & CHEMISTRY IN VALUE (M$) FOR 2000, 2006, 2010 & 2020
o NIMH MARKET (M CELLS) 2000, 2006, 2010, 2020 BY APPLICATION
o LI-ION & POL MARKET (M CELLS) 2000, 2006, 2010, 2020 BY APPLICATION
o NIMH MARKET (M $) 2000, 2006, 2010, 2020 BY APPLICATION
o LI-ION & POL MARKET (M $) 2000, 2006, 2010, 2020 BY APPLICATION
