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China Petrochemicals Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 88 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

We expect China's petrochemicals industry to come under pressure from cooling Chinese economic growthover the coming years. Petrochemicals producers will struggle to survive in the face of falling profitmargins, sluggish demand and waning support from the local governments. In the present economicenvironment and with weak oil prices keeping naphtha costs down, the development of coal and methanolbased chemicals makes less economic sense.In 2015, ethylene output grew 1.6% y-o-y to 17.1mn tonnes, while primary plastic output rose 10.5% to76.9mn tonnes and plastic products rose 1.0% to 75.6mn tonnes. By the end of the year, the rate ofproduction had recovered from a sharp decline in Q215 and was on a consistent upward trend. BMI expectslower capacity utilisation in the context of ethylene capacity growing at a faster rate than output anddemand. Coupled with low naphtha prices, there are doubts about the viability of planned coal-to-olefins/methanol-to-olefins (CTO/MTO) projects. The diversification of feedstock away from naphtha now makeslittle sense, while independents are continuing to fuel investment in the refining sector thereby providingopportunities for naphtha production growth.

Table Of Contents

China Petrochemicals Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Political 10
Economy 11
Operational Risk 12
Industry Forecast 14
Demand 14
Production 16
Table: China's Petrochemicals Sector ('000 tpa, unless otherwise stated), 2012-2020 19
Macroeconomic Forecasts 20
Economic Analysis 20
Industry Risk/Reward Index 24
Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 24
Table: Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Ranking 27
Market Overview 28
Industry Trends And Developments 32
Trends: Economic Volatility And Safety Concerns 32
Cracker Project Timescale 33
Table: Conventional Cracker Projects, 2016-2020 33
Upstream And Refining 34
Table: Refineries In China With Over 200,000b/d Capacity 35
Unconventional Gas Development 37
Coal-Based Chemicals 39
Table: China MTO plant operating status round-up, January 2016 39
Sinopec 42
PetroChina 44
CNOOC 44
Aromatics And Derivatives 45
Company Profile 46
China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) 46
PetroChina 50
Table: PetroChina Financial Results (CNYmn) 54
Regional Overview 55
Asia Overview 55
Global Industry Overview 65
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices 75
Table: Global Energy Price Forecasts (2014-2019) 75
Table: Global Energy Price Forecasts (2020-2025) 76
Demographic Forecast 78
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025) 79
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025) 79
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025) 80
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025) 80
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025) 81
Glossary 83
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 83
Methodology 84
Industry Forecast Methodology 84
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 86
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators 87
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 88

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