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Kenya Telecommunications Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 66 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We slightly upgraded our Q216 forecasts, due to faster growth in 2015 with 1.7mn newsubscribers being added in Q315. Further growth in the market will be supported by a low penetration ratecurrent sitting at 88.1%. Mobile Financial Services, in particular, will be a key driver for both subscriptionand revenue growth. We however remain watchful of recent consolidation in the market, strong competitionin the wireline sector, and Helios' acquisition of a 70% stake in Telecom Kenya. Furthermore, we stillbelieve that the completed digital migration will free up new spectrum, easing the response to growth in thedata market.

Latest Updates & Industry Development

- The Kenyan mobile market grew by 4.9% quarter-on-quarter (q o q) in Q315 and 15.5% year-on-year.We forecast mobile subscribers to grow to 84.43mn.

- Mobile Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) appreciation continued, with Safaricom registering a 1.2%y-o-y increase in blended ARPU in Q315. We forecast monthly blended ARPU to grow to KES386.3mnin 2016.

- The disconnection of Telekom Kenya's CDMA network led to a substantial fall in fixed-linesubscriptions. We nevertheless forecast a low 0.4% 2016 growth in fixed-line telephone subscriptions.

- The internet market was the fastest growing segment of the Kenyan mobile network registering a 40.8%y-o-y growth in March 15. The trend was continued in Q2 and 3 in 2015. In 2016, we forecast 3G and 4Gto account for 24.8% of the mobile market.

Table Of Contents

Kenya Telecommunications Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Latest Updates and Industry Development 7
SWOT 9
Telecoms 9
Industry Forecast 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Kenya 2013-2020) 16
Industry Risk/Reward Index 17
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index 17
Table: Regional RRI Comparison, Q216 18
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index, Q2 2016 20
Kenya Risk/Reward Index 21
Market Overview 23
Market Drivers and Trends 23
Mobile 23
Table: National Payment System Framework - Key Points 31
Wireline Voice and Broadband 31
Table: Internet Subscriptions By Technology 34
Table: Fixed/Fixed Wireless Broadband Market 35
Pay-TV/Convergence 35
Regulatory Development 37
Regulatory Overview 37
Table: Kenya: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 37
Table: National Payment System Framework - Key Points 43
Competitive Landscape 44
Table: Key Players - Kenya Telecoms Sector 44
Table: Kenya Mobile Market Overview 2014-2015 44
Table: Safaricom 45
Table: Orange 45
Table: Airtel 46
Company Profile 47
Telkom Kenya 47
Safaricom 51
Demographic Forecast 55
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kenya 1990-2025) 56
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kenya 1990-2025) 56
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Kenya 1990-2025) 57
Table: Population By Age Group (Kenya 1990-2025) 57
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kenya 1990-2025) 58
Glossary 60
Table: Glossary Of Terms 60
Methodology 62
Industry Forecast Methodology 62
Sources 64
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 64
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 65
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 66

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