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Peer-to-Peer Lending: Market insight report

  • October 2013
  • -
  • Apex Insight
  • -
  • 36 pages

This reviews the peer-to-peer lending sector. We quantify the scale of lending, historical growth rates, default rates and returns offered to savers while reviewing key factors behind these figures, looking at the UK and internationally.

We also carry out an in-depth analysis of the relevant drivers of peer-to-peer lending growth – including wider trends in banking and lending, other peer-to-peer trends and the regulatory environment. Our view of the outlook for the industry is based on this analysis of historical trends and drivers.

Peer-to-peer lending is an important and high-profile trend in the banking sector. In just a few years, platforms have emerged which have facilitated hundreds of millions of pounds, made mainly by consumers to other consumers and to small businesses.

The industry is frequently mentioned in the press with comments having particular focus on:
- The level of returns which it offers to savers, which are generally far higher than those from conventional banks
- The degree of risk that savers are incurring to obtain these returns and, in particular, the risk that returns may be impaired by future widespread default.

This report explores the background to these and other issues, exploring what has happened in the industry to key metrics such as levels of lending, returns and default rates, and the factors which lie behind trends.

It also examines the different business models of the main platforms, their target segments and performance and sets out our views on how we believe the peer-to-peer lending market could develop in future.


Who is it useful for?


Peer-to-peer lending platforms
Investors in those platforms
Advisors including consulting firms, investment banks, lawyers and accountants
Banks and other parties operating savings accounts and consumer / small business loans.
Industry regulators and policymakers


What are the sources and methodology?


This report is based on:
– Interviews with peer-to-peer lending platforms and others with interests in the industry
– Extensive research into published industry sources
– In-depth analysis of the macroeconomic environment and relevant peer-to-peer lending market drivers
– Financial analysis of the accounts of and loans data provided by companies in the industry

Information from these sources has been synthesised and presented clearly and concisely with extensive use of charts and tables to illuminate points and support conclusions

Table Of Contents

Peer-to-Peer Lending: Market insight report
Contents

Peer-to-Peer Lending Overview - 7
• Description of peer-to-peer lending
• Context
• Customer proposition: savers / lenders
• Customer proposition: consumer borrowers
• Customer proposition: small business borrowers
• Business models
• Shift from marketplace to structured savings product model

Market size and growth - 14

Market drivers - 16
• Decreasing bad debt rates
• Lending market conditions
• Use of wholesale funds
• Awareness and marketing efforts of platforms
• Regulation
• Tax treatment
• More new entrants and niche focus

Leading operators - 25

Outlook - 32
• Drivers of future growth
• Growth forecasts
• Risks: fall in the rates offered to savers
• Risks: widespread default leading to poor returns
• Response and role of conventional banks
• Opportunities for existing platforms and new entrants

Appendix - 37

List of figures (UK Consumer Debt Purchase Market Report)

1. Rates offered to savers by a range of peer-to-peer lenders
2. Savings rate comparison: peer-to-peer platforms vs. banks
3. Comparison of rates offered to UK consumer borrowers
4. Zopa interest rate variation by loan amount
5. Leading peer-to-peer lenders - employee numbers
6. Operating cost comparison: Lending Club vs. traditional lender
7. Amount lent with peer-to-peer platforms worldwide
8. UK unsecured consumer credit by type
9. UK vs. US: peer-to-peer lending per population
10. UK unsecured consumer credit trends
11. Zopa default and arrears rate by year
12. Lending Club loan performance by year of loan origination
13. Funding Circle loan performance by year of loan origination
14. Lending Club loan bad debt by age
15. Interest rates: £5k personal loan vs. base rate
16. Zopa historical returns to savers
17. % of survey respondents making bank debt applications
18. UK Bank term loan margins by year of origination
19. Bank debt rejection rates
20. Reasons why small businesses were discouraged from loan applications
21. UK consumer awareness of different financial investment products
22. Number of website hits per month for top six peer-to-peer platforms
23. Lending activity for big seven peer-to-peer lenders and others
24. Comparison of leading lending platforms
25. UK unsecured consumer borrowing forecasts
26. UK peer-to-peer lending growth projections


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