Thailand Autos Industry Update Quarter 2 2012

  • March 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 80 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI remains upbeat on the long-term outlook for Thailand’s auto market, despite the clear short-term damage that has been caused by the recent heavy flooding across the country, which closed several production lines and caused extensive damage to supply chains across Asia. Among the recent positive pieces of news coming out of the country over Q112 was the announcement by Toyota Motor that it would invest significantly in Thailand: increasing the output of the Chon Buri engine plant, opening a new factory at the Gateway Industrial Estate and also restarting production at the mothballed Thai Auto Works (TAW) facility in Samut Prakan. All told, the Japanese auto manufacturer intends to invest some THB8.2bn in its Thai facilities, in what is a clear vote of confidence in the country.
Certainly, such projects would indicate that 2012 should likely prove a better year for the Thai auto market than 2011. Production levels over the first nine months of 2011 had shown very strong growth rates. However, the flooding that hit the country in October and November 2011 has had a negative impact on output. As an indication of the impact of the floods on domestic production, output dropped from 174,212 units in September to just 49,439 units for October. In November, only 23,695 vehicles were produced in the country.
For the final month of the year, there was something of a recovery, back up to 99,426 units. However, this left full-year output standing at a provisional 1,457,795 units for 2011, a fall of 11.4% y-o-y, according to figures from the Federation of Thai Market ’ automobile market club as quoted by the Bangkok Post in January 2012. The same Bangkok Post reports also stated that passenger cars accounted for 37% of total vehicle output, on 537,987 units, while commercial vehicle production (mostly pick-ups)_ accounted for 62% of total vehicle output, on 899,200 units. For its part, Toyota believes that it has lost around 150,000 units of Thai output as a result of the floods.
New car revenues were also down in 2011, as a result of the flooding. Provisional new vehicles revenues (based on figures from the Federation of Thai Market ’ automobile market club as quoted by the Bangkok Post in January 2012) stood at 794,081 units for the full year, down by 0.8% y-o-y. The leading automaker on the Thai industry remained Toyota, which sold 290,061 vehicles over 2011, for a industry share of 36.5%. In second place was Isuzu Motor, which sold 132,194 vehicles, for a industry share of 16.6%. In third place was Honda Motor (83,952 – 10.6%), followed by Nissan Motor (69,204 – 8.7%) and Mitsubishi Motors (66,002 – 8.3%).
The main cause for the disappointing 2011 production and revenues figures was the severe flooding that hit Thailand over Q411. Indeed, the clean-up was still ongoing as this report was being compiled, with Honda Motor the worst-affected manufacturer, facing an estimated US Dollar 651mn bill to bring its main production plant in Ayutthuya province back online. Indeed, the damage to the plant was so severe that Honda will effectively be rebuilding the facility.
Honda was hopeful that it could restart production at Ayutthuya by end-March 2012. However, the industry player has warned that it would likely take a full year for Thai production to return to full capacity. To help the Japanese automaker recover lost output, the Thai government is to allow Honda to import assembled cars tariff-free until June 2012, according to a report on Reuters. Further information on Honda’s Thai operations can be found in the Firms Profiles section at the end of this report.

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary . 5
Industry SWOT Analysis . 7
Thailand Autos Industry Environment and Risk Analysis . 7
Thailand Political Environment and Risk Analysis . 8
Thailand Economic Environment and Risk Analysis . 9
Thailand Business Environment SWOT . 10
World Overview . 11
Eurozone And EMs Pose Risks To 2012 Growth Outlook; US And Japan On The Rise . 11
Passenger Car Sales (Units), Jan-December 2011 11
Replacement Growth? . 11
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 15
Data : Business Environment Ratings - Autos Market Asia Pacific . 18
Regional Overview . 19
Indian And Chinese Slowdowns Prompt Firms To Target ASEAN Growth 19
Macroeconomic Projection Scenario 22
Data : Thailand - Economic Activity . 24

Market Projection Scenario . 25
Sales 25
Data : Thailand Autos Sales from 2009 to 2016 25
Production 26
Data : Thailand Autos Production from 2009 to 2016 . 26
Trade 28
Data : Thailand Autos Exports, from 2009 to 2016 . 28

Competition Overview . 30
Data : Thailand - Top 5 Manufacturers By Sales 2011 . 30
Passenger Cars 31
Data : Domestic Passenger Car Sales 2011 31
Company Developments 31
Commercial Vehicles . 33
Suppliers . 37
Company Monitor . 39
Is Proton Deal A Win-Win? 39
Company Profiles . 42
Honda Motor . 42
Ford Motor . 44
BMI Methodology . 45
How We Generate Our Market Projections 45
Sources 46

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