Australia Metals Industry Update Quarter 2 2012
$ 1 088
- February 2013
- by Business Monitor International
- 74
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View: Across all types of metals, we expect subdued growth in both production and consumption in
Australia as a weakening global economic outlook, notably China, continue to take its toll on Australia's
commodity driven economy. While significant additional global monetary stimulus should help to boost
metal prices in the near term, the bout of loosening measures will be insufficient to stem the slowdown and
the medium-term outlook for metals remain weak.
The slowdown in the metals industry in Australia is best exemplified by the country's monthly crude steel
production, which has continued to slide into negative territory following positive growth in 2010. Weak
demand from slowing domestic construction and a cooling export market will continue to undermine
Australia's steel industry in 2013. Crude steel production is expected to have contracted by 6.5% in 2012,
but we forecast an uptick in growth of 1.2% in 2013, and national production is unlikely to approach precrisis
levels for many years. The country's two dominant steel producers, BlueScope Steel Ltd and Arrium
Ltd (previously known as OneSteel Ltd), has embarked on a series of consolidation plans and restructuring
programmes aimed at reducing operating costs and curbing overcapacity amid an environment of weak
demand and declining steel prices.
BMI Industry View 7
Australia Metals 7
SWOT 9
Metals . 9
Industry Forecast 10
Steel: Construction Slowdown To Dominate . 10
Table: Australia - Steel Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 15
Table: Table: Australia - Steel Production Historic Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) . 15
Aluminium: Slow Growth To 2017 16
Table: Australia - Refined Aluminium Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 20
Lead: Little Potential For Strong Growth 21
Table: Australia - Refined Lead Production & Consumption Forecasts ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 25
Nickel: Future Lies In Queensland Nickel's Hands 25
Table: Table: Australia - Refined Nickel Production & Consumption . 28
Zinc: Output Growth Heading Towards Negative Territory 28
Table: Australia - Refined Zinc Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) . 32
Commodities Forecast 33
Steel Forecast . 33
Table: BMI Steel Forecast 33
Table: Steel Forecast 39
Commodities Forecast 39
Iron Ore: Holding Up, For Now . 41
Steel: Bleak Outlook . 43
Aluminium: Major Gains Over 44
Copper: Global Stockpiles Pose Downside Risk . 45
Lead: Heading Lower 47
Nickel: No Return To 2012 Highs 49
Tin: Continued Outperformance 50
Zinc: Bounce Is Coming To An End 51
Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy . 52
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts . 52
Competitive Landscape . 53
Australia Competitive Landscape . 53
Table: Australia - Largest Listed Metal Producers 54
Company Profile . 56
Arrium 56
Table: Arrium Limited - Financial Data 59
Alcoa 60
Table: Alcoa - Key Financial Data 63
Rio Tinto 65
Table: Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data 68
Demographic Forecast 69
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 70
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 71
Table: Australia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 72
Table: Australia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 72
Methodology . 73
Steel in Australia
- $ 250
- Industry data
- February 2013
Yearly, From 1996 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: BMI calculation
- Industries : Metal Mining
- Countries : Australia
- $ 250
- Industry data
- February 2013
Yearly, From 1996 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: BMI calculation
- Industries : Metal Mining
- Countries : Australia
- $ 250
- Industry data
- February 2013
Yearly, From 1995 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: UNCTAD
- Industries : Metal Mining
- Countries : Australia
- $ 250
- Industry data
- February 2013
Yearly, From 1995 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: UNCTAD
- Industries : Metal Mining
- Countries : Australia
- $ 250
- Industry data
- February 2013
Yearly, From 1990 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: World Steel Association
- Industries : Metal Mining
- Countries : Australia
Metal Mining in Australia
- $ 250
- Industry data
- February 2013
Yearly, From 1990 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: World Bank/UN/BMI Calculation
- Industries : Metal Mining
- Countries : Australia