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Australia Metals Report Q2 2014

  • January 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 63 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We expect subdued growth in both production and consumption of most metals in Australia as
a weakening global commodity market continues to take its toll on the economy. While significant
additional global monetary stimulus should help to boost metal prices in the near term, the bout of
loosening measures will be insufficient to stem the slowdown and the medium-term outlook for metals
remains weak.
The slowdown in the metals industry in Australia is best exemplified by monthly crude steel production,
which has continued to slide into negative territory following growth in 2013. Weak demand from slowing
domestic construction and a cooling export market will continue to undermine Australia's steel industry in
2014. We do not expect crude to approach pre-crisis levels for many years. The country's two dominant
steel producers, BlueScope Steel Ltd and Arrium Ltd (previously known as OneSteel Ltd), have
embarked on a series of consolidation plans and restructuring programmes aimed at reducing operating
costs and curbing overcapacity amid an environment of weak demand and declining steel prices.

Table Of Contents

Australia Metals Report Q2 2014
BMI Industry View 7
Metals SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Steel: Construction Slowdown To Dominate 11
Table: Australia - Steel Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 15
Table: Australia - Steel Production ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 16
Aluminium: Slow Growth To 2017 17
Table: Australia - Refined Aluminium Production And Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 21
Nickel: Future Lies In Queensland Nickel's Hands 22
Table: Australia - Refined Nickel Production And Consumption ('000 tonnes) 25
Zinc: Output Growth Heading Towards Negative Territory 25
Table: Australia - Refined Zinc Production And Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 28
Regulatory Development 29
Tax Regime 29
Table: Australia - Political Summary 30
Commodities Forecast 31
Commodity Strategy 31
Steel: Locked In Secular Downtrend 33
Aluminium: US$1,800/tonne To Provide Strong Support 33
Copper: Bearish View In Place Despite Some Recovery 34
Nickel: Despite Recent Gains, Downside Risks Dominate 36
Zinc: Channelling Support 38
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI forecasts 39
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 40
Commodities Forecast 41
Table: BMI Steel Forecast 41
Table: Steel Data And Forecasts, 2009-2017 49
Competitive Landscape 50
Table: Australia - Largest Listed Metal Producers 51
Company Profile 52
Arrium 52
Table: Arrium Ltd - Financial Data 56
Rio Tinto 57
Company Overview 59
Company Strategy 60
Latest Financial Results 61
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data 62
Methodology 63
Cross Checks 63

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